Archive for November, 2009
Tuesday, November 17th, 2009
Greek bonds continue to be worst performer among European bonds. The 10-year bond yield is up another 10 bp today after a move of roughly the same magnitude at the end of last week. When the new government under PM Papandreou (elected early Oct) claimed that the deficit it was ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Brown Brothers on Turmoil in Greek markets
Tuesday, November 17th, 2009
The reaction of 2 year notes, to break sharply below solid resistance of 0.80%, was the most unanticipated aspect of today's market moves. But, perhaps it's not as surprising when viewed through the prism of what was an incredibly dovish speech. While laying out the case for enduring weakness and ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on RBS on the Two Year Note: Breaking Through Resistance
Monday, November 16th, 2009
Preview: PPI boosted by gasoline prices, core still tame; IP up again
(1) The overall finished goods PPI likely rose in October (cons: 0.5%, UBSe: 0.4%, after -0.6%), boosted in part by rising gasoline prices. Our 0.1% forecast (cons: 0.1%) for the core finished goods PPI counts on motor vehicle prices ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Preview of Upcoming Economic Data Via UBS
Monday, November 16th, 2009
I wrote at length earlier today on the Bernanke speech. Ian Morris at HSBC is a former colleague and in insightful analyst of the economy. Ian thinks that the FOMC will not raise rates until 2012 and suggests that another liquidity facility might be necessary to handle the toxic CMBS ...
Posted in Uncategorized | 2 Comments »
Monday, November 16th, 2009
I was on WNYC radio here in New York City today with host Amy Eddings and Michael Panzner of the blog Financial Armageddon. Michael and I attended the meeting of bloggers and senior US Treasury officials on November 2 .
That conclave was the subject of the interview.
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Media Appearance
Monday, November 16th, 2009
Prices of Treasury coupon securities staged a powerful rally as the soothing and dulcet tones of Benn Bernanke speaking to a New York gathering of economists was a powerful force inducing investors to buy bonds and to buy bonds with longer maturities.
The speech by the Chairman provided intellectual cover for ...
Posted in Uncategorized | 9 Comments »
Monday, November 16th, 2009
Eurodollar futures were up slightly in the morning and pushed much higher after Bernanke reiterated his forecast for a slow recovery. The curve is flatter, although not much. the biggest flattening has occured in the White pack vs the Red pack. This continuing rally has, at this point, become a ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Euro Dollar Color
Monday, November 16th, 2009
Mortgages are mixed. Fuller coupons with carry such as 5 1/2s and 6s are a couple of ticks better to swaps. Lower coupon 4 s and 4 1/2s are about even to swaps.
Some traders are questioning how much more of a run MBS have left in them. Dollar price becomes ...
Posted in Uncategorized | 2 Comments »
Monday, November 16th, 2009
Swap spreads are narrowing today as the mantra of get me some carry resonated through the marketplace.
Two year spreads are narrower by 3 basis points at 30. Five year spreads are narrower by 3 basis points at 28 1/2. Ten year spreads are 3 basis points tighter at 8 1/2. ...
Posted in Uncategorized | 4 Comments »
Monday, November 16th, 2009
Trading in the corporate bond market has been dominated by another heavy spate of new issuance. Deals are pricing at what one salesman described as expensive levels but the market continues to clear and issuers continue to churn supply.
The ebullient, ecstatic and eccentric actions in the equity market lend support ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Corporate Bonds