Archive for April, 2009

Bond Market Open April 30 2009

Thursday, April 30th, 2009

Prices of Treasury coupon securities ,on balance , have posted modest price declines in overseas trading. The Treasury market has suffered ignominiously as risk taking appetites have returned and sapped demand for risk averse assets. There has been a second jolt in that demand shift has taken place in the ...

Technical Update

Wednesday, April 29th, 2009

I just taledk to my technician friend regarding support levels for the 10 year note. He sees minor support in the mid teens (3.14/3.16. The 200 day moving average is 3.204. He sees major support in the 3.24 to 3.28 area. Now I am out of here. This business can be addicting!!

Position Update

Wednesday, April 29th, 2009

I entered the day long 500 PST. I bought 500 more with the 10 year note at 3.00/3.01. My purchase price was $53.90. My original short was against 2.92 on the 10 year. I am taking the position to the airport with me and will revisit it in the morning. I will ...

Bond Market Close April 29 2009

Wednesday, April 29th, 2009

I have to write earlier than normal and in abbreviated form. As some of you may recall my wife and I became grandparents on January 22 2009. Charlotte Jansen Preall is making her first visit to New York and I am heading to the airport to bring her, her mother ...


Wednesday, April 29th, 2009

The Federal Reserve has not increased its purchases of fixed income assets and that has given the dealers an opportunity to spank the bond market. The 10 year has broken through support in the 3.06 area and trades at 3.09 percent. It is actually as though the odometer rolled over on ...

Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee

Wednesday, April 29th, 2009

The Treasury maintains an outside group which offers advice on the nuances and vagaries of debt management. There musings and reflections are part of the public record and I will link to them here. In short they think that Treasury can handle its current borrowing needs without tinkering with the current issuance ...

Seven Year Auction

Wednesday, April 29th, 2009

At 100 PM the Treasury will baptize the dealer community with the holy water of the 7 year note. There are $ 26billion of these gemlets and the market is quite firm at the moment. I suspect (and yes I am talking my position) that this will get sloppy into 100 ...

Corporate Bonds

Wednesday, April 29th, 2009

The corporate bond market is quite firm again and generically bonds are about 5 basis points tighter. There is a reasonable new issue calendar today. Goldman Sachs is testing the non FDIC guaranteed waters with a benchmark 5 year issue. Price guidance is +410. Outstanding paper was 380ish prior to the ...


Wednesday, April 29th, 2009

I bought back 500 shares of PST at $ 53.90. I had sold out 1000 shares late yesterday at $54.08. I am long currently 1000 shares. I think the 7 year note auction later today pollutes the market.


Wednesday, April 29th, 2009

GDP much weaker than expected at -6.1 versus consensus of -4.7. It looks like the big miss was in business fixed investment which declined at an annual rate of 38 percent. That was the steepest decline in the post war era. (The war being my father's war, World War 2). One ...