Archive for February, 2009

UBS on Car Sales

Tuesday, February 3rd, 2009

Car sales came in at 9.5 million units and that represents level last seen in 1982.  The numbers are pretty grim on the surface but UBS economists discuss the impact of those numbers on Q1  2009 GDP.   Motor vehicle sales, despite the plunge in January, begin Q1 falling less rapidly than they ...

Some Closing Coments February 03 2009

Tuesday, February 3rd, 2009

Prices of Treasury coupon securities fully reversed yesterday's gains and in response to various acts of financial regurgitation benchmark securities are closing at new cycle lows. And since the inverse relationship between price and yield seems to be holding that would mean yields are at new highs. The yield on the ...

Mortgages and Swaps

Tuesday, February 3rd, 2009

Mortgages pirouetted about today on spread versus Treasuries and glided back forth between wider and narrower. They are finishing the day unchanged versus the 5 year Treasuries. One trader noted concern about prepayment speeds as well as uncertainty regarding the effect of government led proposals to repair the banking system. Another salesman ...

Detritus

Tuesday, February 3rd, 2009

10:44 EST - [$1.7Bln CDO liquidation on tap for Feb 10-12]       (2/3) Market sources report that a major CDO liquidation is on tap for       February 10th to the 12th. In total over 190 bonds totalling $1.7 billion       will be auctioned.  The liquidation will take part in five parts:       Sale #1: ...

Agencies and Other Mind Droppings

Tuesday, February 3rd, 2009

FNMA is offering $7billion 5 year notes at a spread of T+ 93 basis points. There has been significant interest in this issue as it is extremely cheap to outstanding debt. There is an outstanding December 13 FNMA issue that was trading at T+ 75 prior to the announcement of this ...

MBS

Tuesday, February 3rd, 2009

Mortgages are unchanged versus swaps and 3 ticks to 4 ticks better to Treasuries. There is the usual selling from originators but that selling has been swamped by foreign and domestic central bank buying. With the Treasury about to issue a gargantuan amount of debt the technicals favor mortgae spreads tightening versus ...

Supply

Tuesday, February 3rd, 2009

Someone sends me an excellent daily piece published by an analyst at Greenwich Capital. It is a recap of overnight activity as well as some thoughts on daily trends and broader themes. This morning he noted that UK sold a 2011 bond which went quite well and Spain had an easy time ...

IG 11

Tuesday, February 3rd, 2009

IG 11 opens unchanged at 202/204.

Libor

Tuesday, February 3rd, 2009

Libor US$ Fixing                  2/03         2/02      Change OVERNIGHT     0.31125      0.28500     0.02625 1 WEEK        0.35125      0.34125     0.01000 2 WEEKS       0.40125      0.38375     0.01750 1 MONTH       0.44500      0.43750     0.00750 2 MONTH       0.94875      0.94375  ...

Some Opening Comments February 03 2009

Tuesday, February 3rd, 2009

Prices of Treasury coupon securities deflated modestly in overnight trading as the market surrendered some of the sharp gains achieved in the Monday session. I can not discern a particular reason for the modest sell off as the drumbeat of news from around the globe portends more economic weakness and ...