Archive for January, 2009

Supply

Friday, January 23rd, 2009

In previous posts I have spoken of the bugaboo of increasing supply from the Treasury and the deleterious impact it will have on the Treasury curve. One analyst I read this morning (at Greenwich Capital ) made the point that in 2008 the refunding auctions , on average, totalled $37 ...

France

Friday, January 23rd, 2009

Bloomberg has an article by a Bloomberg reporter, Anchalee Worrachate, which suggests that France's AAA rating may begin to feel some pressure as budge deficits rise in absolute terms and relative to GDP.The article notes that the spread of French 10 year bonds to similar bunds has widened to 57 ...

IG 11

Friday, January 23rd, 2009

The IG 11 is opening at 219/221 and that looks to be about 5 wider.For the Libor lovers I have a problem.  I am using an Apple computer this morning and I have the foggiest idea how to cut and paste. So I can not help with that this morning. 

Charlotte Anne Jansen Preall

Friday, January 23rd, 2009

Charlotte Anne Jansen Preall entered the world yesterday January 22 2009 at 438PM Chicago time. She tipped the scales at 7 pounds 10 ounces and both mother and child are doing very well.The proud parents are my daughter Jaclyn and her husband Jon.My wife Donna and I changed our flight ...

HSBC Economist on Housing Starts

Thursday, January 22nd, 2009

I am flying out at 415PM so I might post intermittently. * December housing starts fell 15.5% to a new cycle-low 550k (consensus 605k), down from 651k in November. Building permits fell 10.7% to a new low of 545k (consensus 600k), down from 615k. * Starts and permits have fallen 45% and ...

Labor Does Not Halt Libor

Thursday, January 22nd, 2009

Looks like I will not be flying until later today so for Sharon and the other Libor lovers I present the daily matrix!! Libor US$ Fixing                  1/22         1/21      Change OVERNIGHT     0.21000      0.18750     0.02250 1 WEEK        0.29125      ...

Administrative Note

Thursday, January 22nd, 2009

There is a strong probability that there will be no blogging today. It is 630AM in New York and I just received the joyous news from my daughter Jaclyn in Chicago that she thinks she is in labor. She "thinks" because this is her first time with this experience. She is a ...

Japanese Exports Plummet

Wednesday, January 21st, 2009

The global economic slump has had deleterious effect on Japapnese exports as they drop 35 percent from a year ago.

Closing Comments January 21 2009

Wednesday, January 21st, 2009

Prices of Treasury coupon securities sagged today as the equity market rebounded and financial stocks recovered. It is not unlike a scene from the Orwell classic 1984 in which history is rewritten and yesterday did not happen.Supply remains a factor as the Treasury will enter a period of heavy supply ...

Swaps and MBS

Wednesday, January 21st, 2009

Mortgage bonds are tighter to swaps by about 5 ticks, on average. However, lower coupons continue their outperformance and FNMA 4s are better by about 12/32. So the results today are rather coupon dependent. One trader with whom I spoke noted that in the short run supply is limited and ...