Archive for January, 2009

Some Closing Comments January 09 2009

Friday, January 9th, 2009

Prices of Treasury coupon securities have, on balance, registered robust gains in response to the lugubrious labor report released this morning. While benchmark securities have registered gains they are have retreated from the best levels attained earlier.The yield on the 2 year note has slipped 7 basis points to 0.75 ...

MBS and Swaps

Friday, January 9th, 2009

Two year sector swaps are tighter by 2 basis points at 54 1/2. Three year swaps are 1 1/2 basis points tighter at 52 1/4. Five year swaps are wider by 4 1/4 basis points at 54 1/3. Ten year sector swaps are 2 basis points wider at 17 1/4 ...

A Yen for Dollars

Friday, January 9th, 2009

The yen continues to appreciate versus the dollar and is flirting with a break below 90. The conventional wisdom,at least as I perceive it, holds that a break significantly below 90 will bring BOJ intervention to stem the yen's rise. The Japanese economy is mired in the same morass as the ...

Agency Debt

Friday, January 9th, 2009

Agency spreads are tighter by 2 basis points to 3 basis points in the 2 year sector and by about a basis point in the 5 year sector. Ten year paper is unchanged. The Federal Reserve purchased $1.400 billion of 2 year paper and 3 year paper this mornng.I spoke with ...

More ABX

Friday, January 9th, 2009

The selling in ABX which I wrote about late yesterday continues today. Retail clients are sellers and the villain of the piece is the cramdown legislation. AAAs and penultimates are off 2 points to 3 points

Mortgages

Friday, January 9th, 2009

Mortgages are anywhere between 1/4 point and 1/2 point weaker to swaps. Premiums are outperforming. Some of the outperformance reflects the steepening of the yield curve and some reflects that prepays came in slower than expected.

HSBC on the Labor Report

Friday, January 9th, 2009

* The unemployment rate jumped higher in December, rising to 7.2% (consensus 7.0%) from 6.8% in November (Nov upwardly revised from 6.7%). Nonfarm payrolls in December matched expectations at -524k (consensus -525k), but there were net revisions of -154k to the previous two months. Hourly earnings rose 0.3%. * The unemployment ...

IG 11

Friday, January 9th, 2009

IG 11 opened unchanged at 201/204.

Libor

Friday, January 9th, 2009

Libor US$ Fixing 1/09 1/08 Change OVERNIGHT 0.10250 0.10250 0.00000 1 WEEK 0.24750 0.26625 -0.01875 2 WEEKS 0.29250 0.31375 -0.02125 1 MONTH 0.36625 0.38625 -0.02000 2 MONTH 0.96625 1.03750 -0.07125 3 MONTH 1.26000 1.35375 -0.09375 4 MONTH 1.36250 1.45500 -0.09250 5 MONTH 1.48625 1.57750 -0.09125 6 MONTH 1.60000 1.68625 -0.08625 9 MONTH 1.74500 1.82875 -0.08375 12 MONTH 1.85500 1.92500 -0.07000

Some Opening Comments January 09 2009

Friday, January 9th, 2009

Prices of Treasury coupon securities have edged higher in overseas trading as the investing world acts out its monthly version of waiting for Godot as participants anticipate the important US labor report at 830AM New York time. Pundits and paid professional prognosticators posit poor payroll results once again and an ...