Archive for December, 2008

Peace on Earth?

Saturday, December 27th, 2008

The human condition is rather sad,tenuous and fragile and the recent escalation in the Mideast conflict resoundingly makes that point. I am not here to comment on who is right or wrong. I am sure there are multiple villains and multiple heroes. It is just tragic that conflicts can senselessly last ...

UBS on Initial Claims

Friday, December 26th, 2008

Initial jobless claims have been hitting multi decade highs as the recession deepens. Economists at UBS make the point that with the expansion in the labor force claims would need to average about one million per week to equate to the weakness evident in the Reagan/Volcker recession of the early ...

HSBC on the Economic Data

Wednesday, December 24th, 2008

* A mixed bag of data as November real PCE spending managed to rise 0.6% and durable goods orders were better than feared, while higher initial claims at 586k showed rapid job destruction and inflation readings declined further * Nominal spending fell 0.6% (consensus -0.7%), with the headline PCE deflator down ...

Happy Holidays

Monday, December 22nd, 2008

I  am still in Illinois with family and not following markets closely today. I want to thank all of my gracious readers for their support and I wish each of you a joyous holiday season.Blogging will be sparse this week and will resume in earnest one week from today next Monday ...

Miscellany

Friday, December 19th, 2008

Markets are very thin and very illiquid.  Participants are looking ahead to Christmas and New Year's and year end. The snow in New York also has contributed to the light trading. Bond prices are lower across the curve but most of that stems from the violence of the recent rally ...

Corporate Bonds

Friday, December 19th, 2008

Corporate bonds in the secondary market are about a nickel tighter today. The feeding frenzy of the last several days is not evident but the tone remains firm and buyers are swamping sellers. When paper trades it trades on the offered side.There has been robust demand for quality industrial names ...

Swaps and Agencies

Friday, December 19th, 2008

Agency spreads in the 2 year sector are narrower by 4 basis points today. Five year sector spreads have narrowed 1 basis point and the 10 year spread is 1/4 basis point tighter.The sector is benefiting from the residue of the Federal Reserve "pass" yesterday.Swap spreads are mixed. Two year ...

IG 11

Friday, December 19th, 2008

IG 11 opened 226/229 and is now trading in the low 220s. I do not have the previous night close.

MBS

Friday, December 19th, 2008

MBS are opening with very small changes relative to 300PM closing levels. There has been some very modest selling by originators but at this juncture it is shaping up as a quiet day.

FX

Friday, December 19th, 2008

The dollar has staged a substantial rally from the depressed levels attained yesterday,particularly against the Euro. Yesterday while I was at the MaCarthur Airport in Islip New York I strolled from the Starbucks counter to the CNBC store and observed the Euro at $1.46. So we have moved seven big ...