Archive for December, 2008

It’s Official: Recession is One Year Old

Monday, December 1st, 2008

The National Bureau of Economic Research has decreed that the recession began last December. On the more pertinent question of when it might end, that august body chose not to opine.

Mortgages

Monday, December 1st, 2008

Mortgages are trading pretty much in line with swaps. Money managers and convexity types have been buyers and they have concentrated interest in the lower coupons. Foreign portfolios have displayed interest in 6 percent coupons. Originators and leveraged accounts have been sellers outright and of the basis.

Corporate Bonds

Monday, December 1st, 2008

The cash market is quiet in corporate bond market as is the new issue machine. Last week Goldman, JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley brought FDIC guaranteed bonds to market. Market sources expect more of that issuance this week and the same participants think a Wells Fargo deal is imminent. The IG 11 ...

Monday, December 1st, 2008

Agency spreads are wider by four basis points in the 2 year sector,unchanged in the 5 year sector and one basis point narrower in the 10 year sector. Swap spreads are mixed. Two year spreads are wider by 5 1/2 basis points at 115. Five year spreads are 4 basis points ...

IG 11

Monday, December 1st, 2008

IG 11 is indicated 248/252. The last quote I have is from Wednesday before Thanksgiving  when it was 237.

JPMorgan Forecasts a 2 Percent 10 Year in 2009

Monday, December 1st, 2008

In its outlook piece for 2009 economists at the House of Morgan forecast that the yield on the 10 year will reach 2 percent next year. Actually, at the rate at which it is moving it could be there before Christmas. What follows is a brief excerpt from that research ...

Opening Comments for December 1 2008

Monday, December 1st, 2008

Prices of Treasury coupon securities are surging, and as the inverse relationship between price and yield seems to be holding, yields are surging to historic lows. The yield on the 2 year note has declined 3 basis points to 95 basis points. That would be 0.95 percent. The yield on ...

Libor Chart Returns

Monday, December 1st, 2008

Libor US$ Fixing 12/01 11/28 Change OVERNIGHT 1.08750 1.16250 -.07500 1 WEEK 1.20625 1.21125 -.00500 2 WEEKS 1.30375 1.32125 -.01750 1 MONTH 1.91125 1.90125 .01000 2 MONTH 2.06625 2.06000 .00625 3 MONTH 2.22000 2.21688 .00312 4 MONTH 2.36250 2.35250 .01000 5 MONTH 2.48188 2.47000 .01188 6 MONTH 2.60625 2.59125 .01500 9 MONTH 2.69250 2.68000 .01250 12 MONTH 2.77375 2.76625 .00750

Tanta

Monday, December 1st, 2008

The Calculated Risk blog has sadly announced the death of Tanta. She was a co blogger at that influential blog. Her work was phenomenal and she will be missed. My condolences to her co- blogger and her family.