Archive for December, 2008
Friday, December 5th, 2008
From Ian Morris of HSBC on this morning's employment report:
Payrolls fell by 533,000, worse than market expectations of -335,000, with net downward revisions of -199,000 for the previous two months. The unemployment rate was lower than expected at 6.7% (consensus 6.8%), but that was because the labor force shrank by ...
Posted in Uncategorized | 9 Comments »
Friday, December 5th, 2008
The extent of the weakness in the labor markets is just stunning as is the prior month revisions. The economy dove off a cliff in September and it is striking bottom with an ugly thud.
Consensus estimates for Q3 GDP are in the -3 percent to -4 percent zone. I am ...
Posted in Uncategorized | 8 Comments »
Friday, December 5th, 2008
IG 11 continues to exsanguinate and is 9 wider this morning at 284/286. I am not sure but that seems like an all time wide.
Posted in Uncategorized | 2 Comments »
Friday, December 5th, 2008
Maybe it is the four years of Latin that I studied but I just found an interesting website called the Bond Tangent which gives excellent coverage to the municipal bond market, which is a topic I have touched upon here only tangentially. (In Latin the verb tango,tangere,tegi tactus means to ...
Posted in Uncategorized | 5 Comments »
Friday, December 5th, 2008
Here is a link to a Calculated Risk post from yesterday which aggregates a variety of news stories which viewed in their totality paint a potrait of a troubled economy.
Posted in Uncategorized | 2 Comments »
Friday, December 5th, 2008
Libor US$ Fixing
12/05 12/04 Change
OVERNIGHT .28375 .51875 -.23500
1 WEEK .91875 1.05625 -.13750
2 WEEKS 1.13625 1.24750 -.11125
1 MONTH 1.86750 ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Libor Chart
Friday, December 5th, 2008
Prices of Treasury coupon securities slumped modestly in overnight trading from as yields retreated from the historic low levels attained yesterday. Capital markets around the globe await the US payroll data due in about two hours at 830AM New York time. The consensus foresees a decline of about 325K in ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Opening Comments for Labor Friday December 5 2008
Thursday, December 4th, 2008
Prices of Treasury coupon securities surged today as the explosive rally continued in advance of the Labor report tomorrow morning. The yield on the 2 year note dropped 6 basis points to 0.83 percent. The yield on the 3 year note dropped 7 basis point to an amazing 1.00 percent. ...
Posted in Uncategorized | 4 Comments »
Thursday, December 4th, 2008
Corporate bonds are trading quite heavy today. The IG 11 is 275/278 which is about 16 wider on the day.Participants cite several reasons for the merdurinous tone. There has been a flood of FDIC guaranteed paper and even though it is guaranteed the concentrated heavy issuance is taking a bit ...
Posted in Uncategorized | 5 Comments »
Thursday, December 4th, 2008
Two year swap spreads are wider by 3 basis points. Five year spreads are wider by ½ basis point. Ten year spreads are tighter by ¼ basis point. Thirty year spreads are wider by ½ basis point at NEGATIVE 34 ¾.Agency debt is outperforming swaps by 1basis points to 2 ...
Posted in Uncategorized | 2 Comments »