Archive for September, 2008

Closing Comments September 25 2008

Thursday, September 25th, 2008

Prices of Treasury coupon securities, on balance, moved lower today as the seemingly imminent resolution of the issues surrounding the bailout bill appear to have been surmounted. All is well in the commonweal and an atmosphere of comity, collegiality and concord reigns in Washington DC. We will see how long ...

Agency Musings

Thursday, September 25th, 2008

FNMA and Freddie Mac stocks are undergoing a renaissance of sorts today, albeit from prices levels very close to zero. FNMA stock is up 35 percent and Freddie Mac stock is up 42 percent.One analyst cited several factors which would motivate speculators and investors to take a flyer on these ...

Five Year Note Auction

Thursday, September 25th, 2008

In a little over an hour the Henry Paulson will take time a way from the negotiations to rattle the tin cup as he seeks to raise $24 billion via an auction of 5 year notes. This auction is tied for the record size of a 5 year note auction ...

Corporates

Thursday, September 25th, 2008

The corporate bond market still maintains a heavy and illiquid tone.  There is one new deal today from South Carolina Power an A rated utility.  The firm is offering $250 million 10 year 1 st mortgage bonds. Expected pricing will be Treasury plus 270 basis points. That, I am told , ...

MBS

Thursday, September 25th, 2008

MBS are about 8 ticks tighter to Treasuries and 3 tighter to swaps. One dealer noted waves of buying early from hedge funds, money managers and banks. That buying engendered selling from a separate group of money managers and hedge funds. Subsequently one large buyer of MBS emerged as Treasuries ...

Swap Spreads

Thursday, September 25th, 2008

Swap spreads are tighter by 10 basis points in the 2 year sector, 5 basis points in the 5 year sector and 4 basis points in the 10 year sector.

IG 10

Thursday, September 25th, 2008

IG 10 is currently 170 1/2  / 172 1/2.  It had opened tighter but has receded following the earnings warning from GE. It closed yesterday at 169 1/2. The GE story is rather ugly as they warned on earnings and cited the unprecedented volatility in the financial sector. They lowered earnings ...

Some Opening Comments September 25 2008 (Three Months Until Christmas)

Thursday, September 25th, 2008

Prices of Treasury coupon securities have posted bifurcated results in overnight trading as the meandering progress of the bailout package through the labyrinthine legislative process colors trading patterns. President Bush spoke last night and his public commentary added little to our store of knowledge on the topic.However, the Wall Street ...

Bail Out Bill Update

Thursday, September 25th, 2008

This article in the WSJ is the best early in the day summary that I have found on the status of the bailout. Succinctly stated, the negotiators have made progress.

Blank Check

Thursday, September 25th, 2008

Peter Orszag is head of the Congressional Budget Office and he testified before the House Budget Committee on Wednesday. He stated that he could not estimate the cost of the bailout bill because the plan is too vague. He also testified that he expects the $700 billion authority, assuming it passes. to ...