Archive for August, 2008

German Factory Orders

Wednesday, August 6th, 2008

German factory orders were very weak on an outright basis as well as versus expectations. The recent rate hike by the ECB will go down in economic lore as a nonsensical act. European economies are rolling over and the ECB will soon reverse direction.

Freddie Mac Earnings

Wednesday, August 6th, 2008

 Freddie Mac just released its earnings. I have not had a chance to scour the details but on the surface it does not look pretty. The firm lost $821million in Q2 versus $151 million in Q1. The firm made provisions for credit losses of $2.5 billion in Q2 versus $1.2 billion ...

For Jaclyn and Jon

Tuesday, August 5th, 2008

It is after midnight in Italy and that means it is August 6 2008 in Italy. My daughter Jaclyn and her husband Jon are vacationing in that country following a stopover at a scientific conference in Berlin.I hope they read this. It was three years ago on August 6 2008 ...

Consumer Confidence Plummets in UK

Tuesday, August 5th, 2008

Consumer Confidence in the UK plummeted to the lowest level on record in July. The index dropped 11 points to 51. A second report from the UK showed that GDP growth was expected to fall in Q2 from levels which prevailed in Q3. http://www.rttnews.com/Content/ForexTopStory.aspx?Node=B3&Id=675628

FT on Obama VEEP Choice

Tuesday, August 5th, 2008

The FT opines on the Obama choice for VP and the article says that the choice may come from "left field". The writer did not say if the use of the term "left field" was a metaphor. The one name not mentioned in the article was that of Governor Richardson ...

Second Opinion

Tuesday, August 5th, 2008

Treasury Secretary Paulson has hired Morgan Stanley to evaluate FNMA and Freddie Mac. It is an act of due diligence in the event that he found it necessary to excercise his plenipotentiary powers over those companies.

FT on Export Prospects

Tuesday, August 5th, 2008

The FT makes note that in the ISM Service Sector report today as well as in the manufacturing report last week that export orders had declined in each survey. According to the Commerce Department exports contributed 2.4 percent to Q2 growth. Any loss of momentum in that sector will have ...

Closing Comments August 5 2008

Tuesday, August 5th, 2008

Prices of treasury coupon securities have dropped sharply following the release of the statement by the FOMC following the conclusion of its meeting. There was nothing in the statement which precipitated the drop in bond prices. In my opinion,prices fell as the street contemplates the bidding process for the refunding ...

MBS and Swaps

Tuesday, August 5th, 2008

Swap spread are tighter by 1 ¼ basis points in the 2year sector and 1 basis point in the 5 year sector. Ten year swaps are tighter by ¾ basis points.There was some chunky MBS buying today which motivated dealers to hedge in the swap market by receiving fixed. While there ...

Corporate Bonds

Tuesday, August 5th, 2008

Corporate bond spreads as measured by the IG 10 are finishing the day a couple of basis points tighter on the back of an ebullient stock market. There was some trading in the cash market today and one salesperson reported that bonds of large money center banks are probably better ...