Archive for July, 2008

Closing Comments July 1 2008

Tuesday, July 1st, 2008

Prices of treasury coupon securities were all over the ball park today and waxed and waned with the vacillating fortunes of the stock market. Stocks were weak early following weakness in Europe and subsequently recovered again after the stronger than expected ISM report which showed manufacturing on the (barely) expansive ...

Challenging Environment at Fortune Brands.

Tuesday, July 1st, 2008

Fortune Brands manufactures among other things Jim Beam bourbon and Moen faucets. They issued some earnings guidance and it is interesting reading. It describes soft consumer demand and rising input prices. It certainly paints a gloomy picture and highlights the problems the economy confronts. (A hat tip to interestrateroundup)

Agency Close

Tuesday, July 1st, 2008

Agency spreads are wider by 1 basis point to 2 basis points across the curve. The market is weighted down by the Home Loan global issuance. The Home Loan will price $4billion 3 year bonds and $1 billion 10 year bonds this week. That is putting some pressure on spreads ...

MBS

Tuesday, July 1st, 2008

A recent update in MBS says that mortgages are lagging both swaps and Treasury paper. FNMA 5 1/2s are trailing The Treasury curve by 10 ticks and the swap curve by 7 ticks. There has been some reasonably chunky selling of 6s by originators.Accounts see no reason to step in ...

High Noon Update (Five Minutes Early)

Tuesday, July 1st, 2008

The 5 year note has been the superstar on the curve today. The 2year/5year curve has flattened by a basis point while the 5 year/30 year spread has steepened by 4 basis points. The 2year/5year/30 year butterfly is trading around 53 after trading in the low 40s.The most interesting flow that ...

Politics

Tuesday, July 1st, 2008

There is an excellent Op-Ed piece in the New York Times today with some trenchant analysis of the difficulty that Senator Obama will face if he attempts to pry Southern states from Republican camp.  The author is a political science professor at the University of Maryland and he suggests that ...

Corporate Bonds

Tuesday, July 1st, 2008

It is pretty quiet in early trading. Volumes are light and there is no new issuance. Lehman CDS opened 278/288 and a quote just a few minutes ago had them a tad weaker at 280/290. Bank of America was under some pressure. The initial CDS quote on this name was 110/120 and ...

MBS

Tuesday, July 1st, 2008

MBS are 2 to 4 wider versus swaps in early trading. There was tremendous profit taking late yesterday and the street is busy digesting that supply. The activity this morning has been two way. One dealer makes the salient point that most of the trading is of the risk reduction ...

Some Treasury Flow

Tuesday, July 1st, 2008

Some overnight flow in Treasury market:Hedge fund buyer of 2s versus 30s. Real money buyers of 2s. Japanes buyers of 5s and 30s. Japanese sellers of agency bullets. Real money in Asia selling 10s.

Some Opening Thoughts for JUly 1 2008

Tuesday, July 1st, 2008

Prices of Treasury coupon securities have moved modestly higher to begin the second half of 2008. The pervasive gloom which dominated much of the beginning of 2008 remains with the market and has intensified overnight. Equity futures have gapped lower and stand on the threshold of major technical markers. The ...