Archive for June, 2008
Tuesday, June 10th, 2008
I think the 2 year part of the curve is oversold. I think (I know) the economy is weak. It is an election year and the unemployment rate just jumped to 5.5 percent. The housing market is a debacle. The Fed's favored metric the core PCE has strayed very little from the ...
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Tuesday, June 10th, 2008
HSBC on the trade balance for April:
HSBC: US APR TRADE BALANCE - IMPORT & EXPORT BOUNCE
* Sizeable increases in both imports and exports put the April
trade deficit at -$60.9bn (consensus -$60bn)
* Exports in April rose 3.3%, a big increase in volumes as
goods prices only rose 0.3%
* Gains were across the ...
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Tuesday, June 10th, 2008
One dealer notes that the 40 basis point range in the 2 year note yesterday was the largest move in a decade .
Posted in Uncategorized | 2 Comments »
Tuesday, June 10th, 2008
I am just reading some notes which I received yesterday and note that there was some carnage in ABX land. The new penultimate AAA s took a drubbing with the 07-1 and 07 -2 down 3 24/32 and 2 18/32 respectively. There was some retail selling but the dealer from ...
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Tuesday, June 10th, 2008
Equity markets around the globe have hit some troubling air pockets, too. The central bank in China took the draconian measure of raising reserve requirements to combat inflation and to impede growth. The Shanghai stock market responded by falling over 7 percent. Some banks fell 10 percent which is the daily limit. ...
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Tuesday, June 10th, 2008
Prices of Treasury coupon securities have registered losses in overnight trading with the 2 year note suffering a particularly large calamity. The yield curve has flattened rather dramatically in response to comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke in which he noted that risks of a substantial economic downturn had diminished. ...
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Monday, June 9th, 2008
There has been a gigantic and unprecedented move in 2 year Treasury yield and in the yield curve. The move is in response to a Bernanke speech which I have not had an opporunity to read. But the 2 year note is back at 2.93 percent and the 2year/10 year ...
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Monday, June 9th, 2008
Secretary of the Treasury and Goldman Sachs alum Henry Paulson says that he will not rule out intervention as a policy tool.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=arDyYFl_T3tQ&refer=currency
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Monday, June 9th, 2008
The US$ swap curve is behaving very much as the European swap curve did earlier.The 2year/30 year swap rate curve has flattened by over 30 basis points. One source reports that if these levels hold it will be the largest such one day move ever.
Implied volatility has spiked higher with ...
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Monday, June 9th, 2008
Prices of treasury coupon securities have dropped rather dramatically today with the catalyst price action in other markets. ECB President Trichet precipitated an avalanche of deleveraging with his comments last week which indicated that the ECB would raise rates at its next meeting in July.In the swap market in Euros ...
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