Archive for February, 2008
Wednesday, February 13th, 2008
The steepening of the yield curve continues in pronounced fashion. The 2year/10year spread has moved to about 179 basis points. Since the FOMC lowered rates at the conclusion of their meeting in late January that spread has moved 39 basis points wider from the 140 basis point level which prevailed immediately ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Yield Curve
Wednesday, February 13th, 2008
Retail sales surprised to the upside and made me think twice about attempting to forecast economic data. Retail sales jumped 0.3 percent in January(consensus -0.3) from – 0.4 in December. Ex autos sales were up 0.3 percent( consensus 0.2 ) and posted a healthy gain following the drop in December ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Retail Sales
Wednesday, February 13th, 2008
Some overnight flows:
Central bank selling of short agency paper.
Asian end users selling 10years.
Central Bank buyers of the belly.
Bank portfolio buyers 2 years and 10 years.
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Overnight Trading
Wednesday, February 13th, 2008
Prices of Treasury coupon securities are posting modest declines in overnight trading. Yields have increased between 1.5 basis points and 2.5 basis points and the yield curve is a tad flatter. The 2 year/10 year spread is tighter by a basis point at 174 basis points.
Market participants will have a ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Some Opening Thoughts
Wednesday, February 13th, 2008
The economic calendar which appears next to these postings is in error today. The top line which reads "initial claims" should of course be "Retail Sales" and the date should say February 13 2008. My apologies.
JJJ
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Error
Wednesday, February 13th, 2008
An excellent piece on muni auctions from the blog Accrued Interest (which is an even better name than Across the Curve).
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Muni Auctions Explained
Wednesday, February 13th, 2008
Muni Mayhem.
Banks buffeted.
Equity markets ovenight.
Credit crunch.
Homeowner Aid.
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Some Overnight News
Tuesday, February 12th, 2008
Prices of Treasury coupon securities dropped sharply this morning following the annoncement this morning by Warren Buffet that he intended to pluck the last remaining low hanging fruit in the gardens of the monoline insurers. As noted in an earlier post ,this plan would have a salutary effect on the ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on
Tuesday, February 12th, 2008
Agency spreads are about a basis point wider across the curve. One dealer with whom I conversed reports solid demand the last several days for callable paper. He cites several factors motivating the customer interest. The yield curve has steepened and some are availing themselves of he opportunity to lend ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Agency Recap
Tuesday, February 12th, 2008
The Treasury market remains under pressure resulting from the sharp bounce in the equity markets today. The 2 year note yield has risen by 7 basis points to 1.98 percent. The yield on the benchmark 10 year note has jumped 9 basis ponts to 3.70 percent .The 5 year note ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Midday February 12 2008 (199 years old for Lincoln)