Archive for January, 2008

Durable Goods Confounds Forecasters Again

Tuesday, January 29th, 2008

Durable goods orders jumped 5.2 percent in December (consensus 2.6) and durables ex transportation registered a gain of 2.6 percent(consensus 0.1.).  Capital goods orders jumped by 11.2 percent as  defense orders posted an outsized gain of 80 percent. A better and less volatile measure is non defense capital goods ex aircraft and ...

Opening Comments January 29,2008

Tuesday, January 29th, 2008

Prices of Treasury coupon securities are registering modest losses in overnight trading. I believe the same confluence of factors which weighed on sentiment yesterday is at work again today.  The Treasury is set to auction $14billion of securities at 100PM ET and dealers feel an obligation to make room on the shelf ...

Some Morning News

Tuesday, January 29th, 2008

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b77eb5f6-ce0c-11dc-9e4e-000077b07658.html http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a08c4598-ce3e-11dc-9992-000077b07658.html

More on Insurance Company Rescue

Monday, January 28th, 2008

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/39fd24c4-cdd4-11dc-9e4e-000077b07658.html

Baseball

Monday, January 28th, 2008

An excellent story about an entreprenurial baseball player. JJJ

Corporate Bonds

Monday, January 28th, 2008

Corporate bond spreads opened wider by about 4 basis points and are closing the day about a basis point tighter. The improvement reflects the sharp improvement in equity prices. JPMorgan and Wachovia brought chunky 10 year deals to market. Each was priced about 30 basis points cheap to outstanding paper and ...

Treasury Recap January 28, 2008

Monday, January 28th, 2008

Prices of Treasury coupon securities drifted lower today, weighed down by supply, a newly ebullient equity market and uncertainty about the near term course of interest rates. For the day yields have risen between 2 basis points and 5 basis points ,with the largest increases in the belly of the ...

Mortgages and Other Funky Stuff

Monday, January 28th, 2008

Plain vanilla MBS tightened about 4 basis point against the swap curve today as volatility declined. Vol declined because in comparison to other recent trading sessions price movements had a degree of rationality about them. But volatility remains expensive across the vol surface and should remain so until the FOMC ...

No Agony in the Agency Market Today

Monday, January 28th, 2008

Agency spreads are tighter by about a basis point in the 10 year sector.  Spreads in other sectors of the agency market are pretty much unchanged. The theme remains redemptions by the agencies which fosters buying from customers compelled to replace the called paper. The sharp back up in yields from ...

Rattling the Change in the Tin Cup

Monday, January 28th, 2008

In less than an hour the Treasury will auction $24 billion of 2 year notes.  There are divergent views in the street regarding the auction. Some argue that the issue is some 35 basis points cheaper than it was at one point last week. In that regard, it has also cheapened ...