Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category

China Holdings of Treasuries Slide

Wednesday, November 16th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: China's U.S. Treasuries Holdings Decline Biggest holder of American govt debt held $1.16 Tln in Sept. Japanese holdings fell for second straight month to $1.14 Tln China’s holdings of U.S. Treasuries declined to the lowest level in four years, as the world’s second-largest economy runs down its reserves to support ...

Can President Trump Remake the Fed

Wednesday, November 16th, 2016

Interesting article by Professor Tim Duy: What a Trump-Branded Federal Reserve Might Look Like An Austrian (economist) in the White House. Timothy A Duy TimDuy November 16, 2016 — 6:00 AM EST President-elect Donald Trump has the opportunity to remake the Federal Reserve. Or does he? And if he does, what would ...

PPI/CPI

Wednesday, November 16th, 2016

Via Stephen Stanley at Amherst Pierpont Securities: The PPI was much weaker than expected in October, as the headline figure was flat and the core component posted a 0.2% decline.  However, when I delved into the nitty-gritty details, it was hard to put a finger on any meaningful trends in the ...

IP Review

Wednesday, November 16th, 2016

Via Stephen Stanley at Amherst Pierpont Securities:: Industrial production was flat in October, weaker than expected.  Manufacturing output advanced by 0.2%, not far from expectations, but a 2.6% drop in utilities, presumably due to warmer-than-usual weather, dragged the aggregate down.  There were big offsetting revisions (up in August and down in ...

Credit Angst in China

Tuesday, November 15th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: November 15, 2016 — 4:00 PM EST Broad loan-to-deposit ratio at 80% for top 50 China banks: S&P China’s credit reliance could worsen NPL problem, Fitch says Add another credit indicator to the financial warning signs flashing in China. The adjusted loan-to-deposit ratio, which includes a range of off-balance sheet items ...

Commercial Real Estate Angst

Tuesday, November 15th, 2016

Via WSJ: By Peter Grant Updated Nov. 15, 2016 2:44 p.m. ET 1 Defaults are rising in a key corner of the commercial real-estate debt market just as borrowing costs are set to jump, raising the likelihood of a slowdown of the $11 trillion U.S. commercial property sector in 2017. A financial ...

GDP Now

Tuesday, November 15th, 2016

Latest forecast from FRB Atlanta: Latest forecast: 3.3 percent — November 15, 2016 The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2016 is 3.3 percent on November 15, up from 3.1 percent on November 9. The forecast of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures ...

Retail Sales Review

Tuesday, November 15th, 2016

Via TDSecurities: US: Robust Retail Sales Give the Fed Additional Confidence to Move in December ·         Retail sales increased by 0.8% m/m in October, surpassing the market consensus for a more moderate 0.6% m/m gain. The details were equally strong, with gains in 11 of the 13 major subcomponents while core retail ...

Treasury Market Musings

Tuesday, November 15th, 2016

The Long Bond continue to outperform its yield curve cousins. At the close of business last Thursday I had marked 5s 30s at 140.3. In late trading yesterday I marked it at 134.7 and this morning it rests at 131.0. Similarly, 10s 30s closed last week at 81.1 and opened ...

Low Rates and Inequality

Tuesday, November 15th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: Mark Carney said arguments by politicians that loose monetary policies in the U.K. and elsewhere have widened inequality miss the mark. “The focus on monetary policy is a massive deflection exercise,” the BOE governor told lawmakers at a Parliamentary hearing in London on Tuesday. “It’s very important to distinguish the ...