Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category

FX

Monday, November 28th, 2016

Via Kit Juckes at SocGen: FX daily link below, mostly thoughts on EUR/USD after the French Republican Primary and ahead of the Italian referendum this weekend. The broader theme is month-end position-lightening, which is correcting some over-bought USD positions. A glance at a chart of USD/JPY and its 9-day RSI (relative ...

FX

Monday, November 21st, 2016

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman: Drivers for the Week Ahead The news over the weekend is primarily political in nature Investors see two trends which could very well portend a changing paradigm The Federal Reserve was poised to hike rates next month regardless of the electoral outcome. The ...

Some Corporate Bond Stuff

Monday, November 21st, 2016

Via Bloomberg: IG CREDIT: Mix of 10Y Issues Topped Most Active List 2016-11-21 10:51:02.685 GMT By Robert Elson (Bloomberg) -- Secondary IG trading ended with a Trace count of $15.6b Friday vs $20.1b Thursday. * 144a trading added $3b of IG volume Friday vs $3.6b on Thursday * Trace most active issues longer than 2 years: * NWL 4.20% ...

Credit Pipeline

Monday, November 21st, 2016

Via Bloomberg: IG CREDIT PIPELINE: Holiday Week Means Less Volume Likely 2016-11-21 10:27:12.799 GMT By Robert Elson (Bloomberg) -- 84% of dealers and clients, in a Bloomberg survey, expect IG issuance to be no greater than $15b this week. Just 4% expect $25b or more. The difference in expectations may be associated with one large M&A-related type ...

Viewing Bond Market Rout as Victory for Rentier Class

Monday, November 21st, 2016

Via Bloomberg: Higher bond yields will boost funded ratios for pension funds Low rates ‘just not right in today’s economy,’ BlackRock says In the wake of Donald Trump’s victory, much has been made about the stunning selloff in the U.S. bond market. Traders have described it as a bloodbath and a seismic ...

Trump’s Advisors Policy Divide

Monday, November 21st, 2016

Via WSJ: By Nick Timiraos Updated Nov. 20, 2016 7:17 p.m. ET   Donald Trump’s economic team splits neatly into two major groups over a fundamental question: Would the economy benefit most from more carrots or more sticks? Mr. Trump captured the presidency with a small coterie of advisers whose public views diverge ...

Early FX

Monday, November 21st, 2016

Via Kit Juckes at SocGen: <http://www.sgmarkets.com/r/?id=h11d058a1,1915471b,1915471c&p1=136122&p2=748b21c8d1a1d161f0a9a83b74e0f013> The first round of the French Republican Party primaries saw Nicolas Sarkozy knocked out and Francois Fillon go into the second round with Alain Juppe after getting 44% of the vote. That will leave him firm favourite, not just for his party's nomination but also for ...

Alleviating a Global Dollar Shortage

Monday, November 21st, 2016

Via Luke Kawa at Bloomberg: Why the Federal Reserve Must Become the World's 'Dealer of Last Resort' The U.S. central bank could be left holding an elephant-sized bag as a global dollar-shortage bites. Luke Kawa LJKawa November 21, 2016 — 3:14 AM EST As President-elect Donald Trump threatens to turn away from ...

Will OPEC Cut Output?

Sunday, November 20th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: Saudis seek collective curbs under ‘Four Pillar’ approach Iran and Iraq pose challenge, Russia participation in question OPEC says it’s close to a deal to cut oil output for the first time since 2008, a move that may halt a 2 1/2-year price slump. The actions of individual member ...

Trump Trade and Term Premium

Sunday, November 20th, 2016

Via WSJ: By Justin Lahart Nov. 20, 2016 12:18 p.m. ET 5 COMMENTS Whatever President-elect Donald Trump’s policies bring about, the Treasury market’s fever has finally broken. In the short time since Election Day, long-term Treasurys have experienced their swiftest setback in over seven years, with prices tumbling and yields shooting higher. ...