Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category
Monday, December 12th, 2016
Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman:
Drivers for the Week Ahead
The FOMC meeting is the last big event of the year for investors
The Bank of England, the Swiss National Bank, and Norway's Norges Bank hold policy meetings; none are likely to alter policy
Given last week's ECB ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on More FX
Monday, December 12th, 2016
Via Kit Juckes at SocGen:
<http://www.sgmarkets.com/r/?id=h11f12644,194c4423,194c4424&p1=136122&p2=6126320e1f3ab288c34430954b4a8d32>
I do hope there aren't short-covering cannon to the left and the right of this market.... Bloomberg puts the (market-implied) odds of a 25bp Fed rate hike this week at 92% and the odds of a 50bp hike at 8%. It's fair to say that a ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Early FX
Sunday, December 11th, 2016
Via WSJ:
By
Takashi Nakamichi
Updated Dec. 11, 2016 7:43 p.m. ET
2 COMMENTS
One of central banking’s most aggressive easers—the Bank of Japan—may soon have to think about tightening for the first time since 2007.
The latest buzz in Japanese monetary-policy circles is that the BOJ may have to lift the ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Japanese Dilemna
Sunday, December 11th, 2016
Via Bloomberg:
U.S. Limits on Wall Street Bonuses Appear Doomed Ahead of Trump
by
Jesse Hamilton
and
Benjamin Bain
December 9, 2016 — 12:59 PM EST December 9, 2016 — 12:59 PM EST
Obscure regulator of credit unions said to be hurdle for rules
New restrictions clash with Trump pledge to rip up Dodd-Frank
For years the ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Good News for Mercedes Benz of Greenwich
Sunday, December 11th, 2016
Via the WSJ:
By
Jason Douglas and
Jon Sindreu
Dec. 11, 2016 12:17 p.m. ET
In steering their economies, central bankers are guided by a mysterious, hidden interest rate that critics say could be a figment of their imagination.
Major central banks across the globe have taken short-term policy rates to record lows ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Debating the Natural Rate
Monday, December 5th, 2016
Via Blomberg:
Treasury May Extend Maturity Before Ultra Bond Debut: Wrightson
2016-12-05 19:30:14.718 GMT
By Alexandra Harris
(Bloomberg) -- Treasury can increase 10Y, 30Y auctions
while it works out the specifics of 50Y or 70Y offerings to get
a head start on extending the average maturity of its debt,
Wrightson ICAP economist Lou Crandall says in note.
* ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Very Long Bonds
Monday, December 5th, 2016
An excerpt from the morning note of Chris Low at FTN Financial:
Venezuela, whose bold experiment with Bolivaran Socialism has resulted in terrible shortages and such rampant inflation that people have ditched wallets in favor of bags of cash and storekeepers—when they have anything to sell—have taken to weighing notes rather ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on No Wheelbarrows Needed Here
Wednesday, November 30th, 2016
Via FRBAtlanta:
Latest forecast: 2.4 percent — November 30, 2016
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2016 is 2.4 percent on November 30, down from 3.6 percent on November 23. The forecast of the combined contributions of real net exports and ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Big Dip Down for Atlanta Fed 4th GDP Forecast
Wednesday, November 30th, 2016
As an aside in another life circa 1990 I worked with Tim Bitsberger. He traded Long Bonds when I traded short coupon Treasuries. I guess I should have kept his name active in the rolex. (No smart phone as I am a modern Luddite!)
Via TDSecurities:
PDF: https://www.tdsresearch.com/currency-rates/viewEmailFile.action?eKey=X2CIB9IV8QOADAY3R6SAQL84Z
§ The GSEs have been in ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on GSEs and Incoming Trump Administration
Wednesday, November 30th, 2016
Via Stephen Stanley at Amherst Pierpont Securities:
The Treasury market reacted this morning to a very cursory comment by Treasury Secretary nominee Steven Mnuchin that the average maturity of the debt should be extended since interest rates are likely to be low for a few more years. This comment seems like ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Ross and Mnuchin Comments