Labor Data Analysis
June 3rd, 2016 9:57 amVia Millan Mulraine at TDSecurities:
US: Weak Jobs Report Takes June Hike out the Picture
· The pace of US jobs growth declined to a very sub-par 38K pace in May, falling well short of the market consensus for a more robust 160K rise.
· Besides the disappointing headline print, the negative net revision to prior estimates suggests that underlying labor market momentum has weakened.
· The disappointing performance (weak headline print along with the negative net revisions) will certainly cause some consternation at the Fed and will keep a June hike off the table.
The pace of employment growth collapsed unexpectedly in May, with the US economy adding a very meager 38K jobs, compared to market expectations for a more robust 160K pace. This was the slowest pace of jobs growth since December 2013 – if the 35K “jobs lost” due to the Verizon strike are added back to the headline number. Besides the disappointing headline print, the -59K net revisions to earlier estimates underscore the emerging narrative that the US labor market might be standing on weaker footing that previously thought. The unemployment rate, however, dropped sharply, falling to 4.7% from 5.0%, though this was on account of the sharp drop in the participation rate from 62.8% to 62.6% owing to the 458K drop in the labor force. The pace of household employment was also quite weak, with only 26K jobs being added.
At the sectoral level, the weakness was across a broad cross-section of industries. There were jobs losses in the key pro-cyclical sectors of construction (down 15K) and manufacturing (down 10K), while employment in the trade and transportation sector was flat. Government employment rose modestly, adding 123K, while business services (+10K), and education and health services (+67K) added to the headline gains.
There were some redeeming aspects to this report. Despite the sharp falloff in employment, average hourly earnings rose 0.2% m/m (though this is down from a robust 0.4% m/m pace the month before), though the annual pace of wage growth remained unchanged at 2.5% y/y. Aggregate hours worked also edged higher, rising 0.1% m/m, with the 3M annualized pace accelerating to 1.1% from -0.8%. Manufacturing hours also rose, advancing at a 0.2% m/m pace. Other metrics of labor market strength were more mixed. Unemployment duration improved on the month, with both the median (down from 11.4 wks to 10.7 wks) and average (down from 27.7 to 26.7) period of unemployment declining. Similarly, the employment ratio held steady at 59.7%, despite the 484K decline in the ranks of the unemployed.
This was a very weak report, and the sharp falloff in the headline number along with the negative revisions speak to the dramatic slowing in underlying labor market momentum, feeding into the emerging narrative of weakening underlying growth momentum. For the Fed, this report will almost certainly remove any specter of a June hike, and it will raise the hurdle for a July hike. In that regard, we continue to see the September FOMC meeting as the most likely time for the Fed to move on rates. By September, we will get a much better accounting on domestic growth and a clearer picture on underlying labor market momentum, providing the Fed with the necessary confidence to move on rates.
From a currency market perspective, the May jobs report clearly adds to near-term downside risks to the USD. Beyond that, however, we think its impact is likely to remain limited. With the data offering an unusually high degree of mixed messages, we think the uncertainty that remains, once the market’s knee-jerk reaction is digested, is to leave currency market participants largely where they were. While a June hike is clearly off the table – and there are greater questions now whether a move in July is feasible – we continue to see September as the most likely time for action. It is this outlook that has informed our core views on and forecast profile for the USD. Accordingly, we affirm our general expectation that the USD will remain generally well supported over the next several months, but we are not looking for any great bout of appreciation until the circumstances that allow the Fed to move again become clearer.