IG CREDIT: ORCL Issues Continue to Be Among Most Active
2016-07-08 09:54:41.268 GMT
By Robert Elson
(Bloomberg) — Secondary IG trading ended with a Trace
count of $16.9b vs $18.5b Wednesday, $19.9b last Thursday. 10-
DMA $14.4b; 10-Thursday moving avg $16.4b.
* 144a trading added $1.6b of IG volume vs $2.1b on Wednesday,
$2.7b last Thursday
* Most active issues:
* ORCL 2.65% 2026 was 1st
* TD 1.80% 2021 was next
* ORCL 4.00% 2046 was 3rd
* UBS 4.125% 2026 was most active 144a issue
* Bloomberg US IG Corporate Bond Index OAS at 158.1 vs 159.4
* 2016 high/low: 220.8, a new wide since Jan. 2012/150.8
* 2015 high/low: 182.1/129.6
* 2014 high/low: 144.7/102.3
* BofAML IG Master Index at +159 vs +160
* 2016 high/low: +221, the widest level since June
2012/+152
* 2015 high/low: +180/+129
* 2014 high/low: +151/+106, tightest spread since July
2007
* Standard & Poor’s Global Fixed Income Research IG Index at
+209 vs +207
* +262, the new wide going back to 2013, was seen
2/11/2016
* The widest spread recorded was +578 in Dec. 2008
* S&P HY spread at +666 vs +669; +947 seen Feb. 11 was the
widest spread since Oct. 2011
* All-time wide was +1,754 in Dec. 2008
* Markit CDX.IG.26 5Y Index at 76.8 vs 76.4
* 73.0, its lowest level since August, was seen April 20
* 124.7, a new wide since June 2012 was seen Feb. 11
* 2014 high/low was 76.1/55.0, the low for 2014 and the
lowest level since Oct 2007
* Current market levels vs early Thursday, Wednesday levels:
* 2Y 0.609% vs 0.589% vs 0.546%
* 10Y 1.388% vs 1.375% vs 1.336%
* Dow futures +28 vs +13 vs -71
* Oil $45.32 vs $48.03 vs $46.38
* ¥en 100.66 vs 100.96 vs 100.44
* IG issuance rebounds with 10 deals totaling $11.55b Thursday
vs $10.6b Wednesday, $4b Tuesday
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Some Corporate Bond Stuff
* Teva Pharmaceutical Industries (TEVA) Baa1/BBB+, said to
consider accelerating $22b bond sale plan
* TEVA ~$40.5b Allergan generics buy
* $22b bridge; $5b TL commitment (Nov 18)
* EnLink Midstream Partners (ENLK) Ba2/BBB-, had
BofAML/JPM/STRH organize investor calls July 6; last priced
a new deal in May 2015
* Woori Bank (WOORIB) A2/A-, mandates BAML/C/Cmz/CA/HSBC/Nom
for investor meeting July 11-20
* Thermo Fisher (TMO) Baa3/BBB, gets loans for FEI (FEIC) buy
via 21 banks
* Investment Corp of Dubai (INVCOR), weighs bond sale; last
issued in May 2014
* Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (SAUDI), said to tap C/HSBC/JPM for
its first international bond sale; kingdom will probably
wait until after summer to sell at least $10b of bonds and
may replicate Qatar’s recent sale by issuing 5y, 10y, 30y
tranches, sources say
* Potash Corp Of Saskatchewan (POT) A3/BBB+, files automatic
debt shelf; last issued March 2015
* Monsanto (MON) A3/BBB+, may see higher bid from Bayer
(BAYNGR) A3/A-
* Microsoft (MSFT) Aaa/AAA, added to list of possible issuers,
says Morningstar; also notes PG, DOV as potentials
* Sumitomo Life (SUMILF) A3/BBB+, to hold an investor meeting
July 19, via BofAML; focus to be on hybrid capital
* It last priced a USD deal in 2013
* Korea Gas (KORGAS) Aa2/A+, held investor meetings June
27-30, via C/CS/HSBC/JPM/SG/UBS; 144a/Reg-S transaction may
follow
* KT Corp (KOREAT) Baa1/A-, held investor meetings June 16-24,
via BNP/BAML/C/Nom, for possible USD 144a/Reg-S
* Dubai’s Emaar Properties (EMAAR) Ba1/BBB-, plans potential
USD bond sale
* USAID Ukraine (AID) heard to be in the works with possible
full faith & credit deal
* General Electric Company (GE) A3/AA-, has yet to issue YTD;
parent GE Co has $11.1b maturing this year, $2.3b matured in
May
* GE may be among high grade industrials to add leverage
in 2016, BI says in note
MANDATES/MEETINGS
* Kookmin Bank (CITNAT) A1/A, held investor meetings June
13-17, via BAML/CA/HSBC/Miz
* SMBC Aviation Capital (SMBCAC) held investor calls June 8-9,
via C/CA/JPM/RBC/SMBC; a potential US$ 144a/Reg-S offering
may follow
* National Grid (NGGLN) Baa1/na, hired JPM to hold investor
meetings that ran June 1-3
M&A-RELATED
* Shire (SHPLN) Baa3/BBB-, closed $18b Baxalta acquisition
loan; facilities to be refinanced through capital market
debt issuance
* Zimmer Biomet (ZBH) Baa3/BBB, to acquire LDR for ~$1b; co.
said it plans to issue $750m of sr unsecured notes after
deal completion
* Air Liquide (AIFP) A3/A-, held calls regarding Airgas
refinancing; planned to refinance $12b loan backing the deal
via combination of USD, EUR long-term bonds
* Bayer (BAYNGR) A3/A-, said to secure $63b financing, via
BAML/CS/GS/HSBC/JPM, for Monsanto (MON) A3/BBB+ bid; co.
likely will issue $20-$30b bonds to refinance part of the
bridge loan
* Great Plains Energy (GXP) Baa2/BBB+ to issue long-term
financing including equity, equity-linked securities and
debt prior to closing of Westar Energy (WR) A2/A deal; says
financing mix will allow it to maintain investment-grade
ratings
* Abbott (ABT) A2/A+; ~$5.7b St. Jude buy, ~$3.1b Alere buy
* $17.2b bridge loan commitment (April 28)
* Sherwin-Williams (SHW) A2/A; ~$9.3b Valspar buy
* $8.3b debt financing expected (March 20)
* Duke Energy (DUK) A3/A-; $4.9b Piedmont Natural buy
* $4.9b bridge (Nov 4)
* Anthem (ANTM) Baa2/A-; ~$50.4b Cigna buy
* $26.5b bridge (July 27)
SHELF FILINGS
* ERP Operating LP (EQR) Baa1/A-, filed an automatic debt
securities shelf June 28; last issued $450m 10Y notes May
2015
* Tesla Motors (TSLA); automatic debt, common stk shelf (May
18)
* Debt may convert to common stk
* Reynolds American (RAI) Baa3/BBB filed automatic debt shelf;
sold $9b last June (May 13)
* Statoil (STLNO) Aa3/A+, files debt shelf; last issued USD
Nov. 2014 (May 9)
* Corporate Office (OFC) Baa3/BBB-; debt shelf (April 12)
* Rogers (RCICN) Baa1/BBB+; $4b debt shelf (March 4)
OTHER
* Discovery Communications (DISCA) Baa3/BBB-; may revisit bond
market this yr, BI says (May 18)
* Ford Motor Credit (F) Baa2/BBB; may have ~$7b issuance this
yr (May 10)
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Credit Pipeline
Via Stephen Stanley at Amherst Pierpont Securities:
Anyone looking for evidence in the initial unemployment claims data that the labor market has softened is out of luck. In the week ended July 2, claims slid by 16,000 to 254,000, the lowest reading since April. The underlying trend has been remarkably steady this year, with the four-week average at 265K, the three-month average at 266K, and the year-to-date average at 268K. Nevertheless, week-to-week volatility has been significant. In fact, 11 of the past 15 weekly prints have registered a double-digit move, including the last four in a row. What does it mean? Do not get overly excited by the latest swing. Especially when the week in question captures the turn of a calendar quarter and the lead-up to a holiday. Moreover, July tends to be one of the more volatile months of the year for claims, reflecting difficulties calibrating the seasonal adjustment factors to the summer plant shutdowns in various industries over the course of the month. So, I will not be surprised if we see big weekly moves this month but doubt it will amount to much in the big scheme of things.
Speaking of the big picture, with one day to go until the June employment report, it is a good time to take stock. I can’t think of a single labor market indicator that has been released over the past month that supports the abrupt slowdown in hiring signaled by the May payroll figures. I look for a return to normalcy tomorrow. I will send out a full preview of the June employment report later today.
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Initial Claims
The Rome Olympics of 1960 marked the rebound of the Italian capital after years of war and reconstruction, an affirmation of the country’s renaissance and the city’s emergence as a symbol of dolce vita insouciance. Rome is still paying the bill, and the new mayor, Virginia Raggi, is sick of it.
The city has roughly €13.6 billion ($15.2 billion) in debt and more than 12,000 creditors—though the pile is so complex no one really knows how much is owed to whom. Rome faces outstanding bills for operating its 61-year-old metro system, hauling trash, and running a network of unprofitable pharmacies that compete with private shops. The courts are grappling with hundreds of lawsuits over unpaid debts going back 50 years for land expropriated to build hospitals, streets, and other city projects—including some debts connected to the 1960 games, former Mayor Ignazio Marino has said. The average interest rate: 5 percent, at a time when the Italian government is issuing 10-year bonds at 1.5 percent annually. “We can’t keep paying such high interest just because nobody bothered to renegotiate the debt,” Raggi, who was elected on June 19, told the RAI television network.
Raggi, a 37-year-old lawyer and Rome’s first female mayor, has ridden a wave of frustration with Italy’s old guard—especially its handling of the economy—to one of the country’s most powerful political jobs. Her rise mirrors the growing strength of her party, the Five Star Movement, founded in 2009 by Beppe Grillo, a scruffy, bearded comedian who got his start on variety shows in the 1970s but was later banned from public television for his biting political satire. Five Star (the stars are meant to represent water, environment, transport, development, and energy, though the party mostly focuses on fighting corruption and cutting regulations) has grown into a formidable rival to the Democratic Party of Prime Minister Matteo Renzi. Its biggest names—Grillo, Raggi, and Chiara Appendino, a 32-year-old businesswoman just elected mayor of Turin—have won support from across the political spectrum with their portrayal of the establishment as greedy buffoons unprepared to deal with the country’s problems. Renzi’s “life of privilege with public money,” Grillo writes on his blog, “is an insult to those who can barely make ends meet.”
Five Star’s leaders have used debt as an issue that sets their party apart from Renzi’s. The movement says banks and special interest groups encouraged governments at the national and municipal levels to borrow beyond their means. At one point Raggi even hinted some of the debt shouldn’t be paid—echoing Grillo’s contention that the pile of loans is “immoral”—but she quickly backtracked after rivals accused her of scaring off investors.
Renzi says he doesn’t believe in austerity measures that might stifle growth but that he’s committed to reducing the national debt by trimming bloated budgets. And while he hasn’t said he’ll seek to renegotiate the debt, he’s obtained a partial waiver from European Union restrictions on deficit spending to free up money for security, infrastructure investment, and support for the unemployed. Nonetheless, efforts to tackle the debt have been hobbled by lackluster expansion. The gross domestic product is forecast to grow 1.1 percent this year, vs. 1.6 percent for the euro area, the European Commission forecasts.
Few would argue that Italy doesn’t desperately need a solution to its debt woes. The country owes creditors €2.2 trillion, or more than 130 percent of GDP—a ratio higher than any EU country’s other than Greece. High taxes aimed at paying down the debt stifle growth, which reduces the government’s ability to fund new programs. At the same time, Italy’s banks hold more of their country’s sovereign debt than lenders in any other euro area nation, and they’re burdened with €360 billion in bad loans, more than a quarter of the total held by euro area financial institutions. Government attempts to load these assets into a “bad bank” have foundered because of European rules against state aid to banks. As a result some institutions could face insolvency. The nonperforming loans and the level of public debt held by banks make their “overall position very precarious,” says Marc Ostwald, a strategist at ADM Investor Services International. The nonperforming loans could devastate banks’ balance sheets, and the heavy exposure to government debt could trigger heavy losses.
Before Raggi, a government-appointed commissioner ran Rome for nine months. Marino, from Renzi’s Democratic Party, had been forced out over a scandal that included allegedly billing the city for a dinner with the Vietnamese ambassador that never took place. His downfall and Renzi’s inability to counter Raggi with a convincing candidate portend growing problems for the ruling party. A poll released in July by researcher Demos found that Five Star would win a majority in Parliament if elections were held today. Renzi’s popularity will be tested in October, with a referendum he proposed on reducing the Senate’s powers and streamlining the legislative process. If it fails, he’s said he’ll quit, leading to “months of political instability,” says Giovanni Orsina, a government professor at Rome’s Luiss-Guido Carli University. “That would make Italy a problem for Europe once again.”
The bottom line: Italy’s debt is spurring increasing frustration among voters, imperiling Prime Minister Renzi and benefiting the populist Five Star party.
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Populists Politicians and Italy’s Debt Pile
The Brexit vote has sparked withdrawals by investors from UK based property funds. That outflow has a run on the bank quality to it and Bill Gross has commented that it is reminiscent of the actions at Bearn Stearns hedge funds in the fledgling days of the financial crisis.
Via Bloomberg:
Henderson, Columbia Threadneedle and Canada Life suspend funds
Aberdeen marks down value of U.K. property fund by 17%
U.K. property funds with about 18 billion pounds ($23.4 billion) of assets froze withdrawals as investors sought to dump real estate holdings in the aftermath of Britain’s vote to leave the European Union.
“It’s reminiscent of Bear Stearns’ subprime funds before the Lehman debacle,” Bill Gross, a fund manager at Janus Capital Group Inc., said on Bloomberg TV. “The system doesn’t allow liquidity to flow into the proper places. If these property funds are just one indication, perhaps there will be others to follow. I think it’s something to worry about.”
Henderson Global Investors, Columbia Threadneedle Investments and Canada Life suspended trading in at least 5.7 billion pounds of funds on Wednesday. Aberdeen Fund Managers Ltd. cut the value of a property fund by 17 percent and suspended redemptions so that investors who asked for their money back have time to reconsider. Legal & General Group Plc said Thursday it is adjusting the value of its 2.3 billion-pound property fund by an additional 10 percent.
Investors are pulling money from U.K. property funds as analysts warn that London office values could fall by as much as 20 percent within three years of the country leaving the EU. During the financial crisis of 2007 and 2008, real estate funds were similarly hit by redemptions and forced to halt withdrawals, contributing to a slump in property prices of more than 40 percent from their peak in Britain.
Wednesday’s moves brings the number of U.K. firms curbing redemptions to seven since the June 23 vote. Henderson said Wednesday it had temporarily halted its 3.9 billion-pound U.K. Property PAIF fund along with feeder funds due to “exceptional liquidity pressures” and the recent suspension of other funds. Columbia Threadneedle halted its 1.39 billion-pound PAIF and feeder funds and Canada Life froze four funds totaling 450 million pounds.
“The problem with open-ended funds is you do start to have panic selling, so you really have no choice but to suspend the fund,” said Jason Hollands, managing director at investment firm Tilney Bestinvest. “There’s an inevitability to this now.”
‘Penal Consequences’
Aberdeen, which marked down the value of its 3.2 billion-pound U.K. property fund, said it was halting withdrawals for 24 hours as of noon Wednesday so clients who asked for their money back have time to reconsider their orders.
“Shareholders wishing to redeem will do so at a price which is subject to the above dilution adjustment in order to reflect the current market environment and the fact that short-term trading in the property market has relatively penal consequences,” the firm said.
With the real estate tremors echoing the last financial crisis, the growing fear is that failure to control aftershocks from the Brexit vote will propel the economy into recession. The pound sank to a fresh 31-year low as the fallout continued to reverberate through financial markets.
“We can’t ignore what’s happening from a redemption request perspective or the closing perspective,” Wayne Bowers, chief executive officer of the international asset management arm of Northern Trust Corp., which manages about $900 billion of assets, said in an interview in Sydney. “You can’t brush that under the carpet. Then you’re looking at other assets that are under, or are potentially under, similar pressure.”
Cash Levels
Investors pulled money from real estate funds in the lead up to the vote, depleting cash levels. Standard Life Investments was the first money manager to halt withdrawals on Monday, followed by Aviva Investors and M&G Investments. About 24.5 billion pounds is allocated to U.K. real estate funds, according to the Investment Association.
There’s “a loss of confidence in the valuations being used” by fund managers, said John Forbes, an independent real estate consultant and former tax partner at PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP who specializes in property funds. “The retail funds had cash and balances in liquid shares” to manage normal levels of outflows, he said.
Aberdeen said its funds had invested in 79 U.K. properties across sectors including retail and industrial.
“The portfolio was positioned defensively prior to the referendum with one of the highest levels of liquidity of all similar funds and having sold all its quoted property companies investments in the week prior to the referendum and holding this as cash,” the firm said.
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on “Reminiscent of Bear Stearns”
By Robert Elson
(Bloomberg) — Secondary IG trading ended with a Trace
count of $18.5b vs $14.5b Tuesday, $17.7b last Wednesday. 10-DMA
$14.1b; 10-Wednesday moving avg $17.1b.
* 144a trading added $2.1b of IG volume vs $1.9b Tuesday,
$2.6b last Wednesday
* Most active issues:
* ORCL 4.00% 2046 was 1st with client flows accounting for
56% of volume; client selling 5:3 vs buying
* ORCL 2.65% 2026 was next with client flows taking 69% of
volume
* ABIBB 3.65% 2026 was 3rd with client and affiliate flows
at 81% of volume
* KHC 4.875% 2025 was most active 144a issue with client flows
accounting for 55% of volume
* Bloomberg US IG Corporate Bond Index OAS at 159.4 vs 161.4
* 2016 high/low: 220.8, a new wide since Jan. 2012/150.8
* 2015 high/low: 182.1/129.6
* 2014 high/low: 144.7/102.3
* BofAML IG Master Index at +160 vs +161
* 2016 high/low: +221, the widest level since June
2012/+152
* 2015 high/low: +180/+129
* 2014 high/low: +151/+106, tightest spread since July
2007
* Standard & Poor’s Global Fixed Income Research IG Index at
+207 vs +216
* +262, the new wide going back to 2013, was seen
2/11/2016
* The widest spread recorded was +578 in Dec. 2008
* S&P HY spread at +669 vs +672; +947 seen Feb. 11 was the
widest spread since Oct. 2011
* All-time wide was +1,754 in Dec. 2008
* Markit CDX.IG.26 5Y Index at 76.4 vs 79.0
* 73.0, its lowest level since August, was seen April 20
* 124.7, a new wide since June 2012 was seen Feb. 11
* 2014 high/low was 76.1/55.0, the low for 2014 and the
lowest level since Oct 2007
* Current market levels vs early Tuesday levels:
* 2Y 0.589% vs 0.546%
* 10Y 1.375% vs 1.336%
* Dow futures +13 vs -71
* Oil $48.03 vs $46.38
* ¥en 100.96 vs 100.44
* IG issuance totaled $10.6b Wednesday vs $4b Tuesday
* Pipeline – SUMIBK 3-Part Deal Starts the Issuance Day
* Note: subscribe bar in upper left corner
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Some Corporate Bond Stuff
IG CREDIT PIPELINE: SUMIBK 3-Part Deal Starts the Issuance Day
2016-07-07 09:37:20.566 GMT
By Robert Elson
(Bloomberg) — Set to price today:
* Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (SUMIBK) A1/A-, to proce 3-
part deal, via managers C/GS/JPM/SMBC
* 5Y, IPT +130 area
* 5Y FRN, equiv
* 10Y, IPT +150 area
* Care Capital (CARCAP) Baa3/BBB-, to price $500m 144a/Reg-S
10Y, via Barc/BAML/JPM/WFS
LATEST UPDATES
* EnLink Midstream Partners (ENLK) Ba2/BBB-, had
BofAML/JPM/STRH organize investor calls yesterday; last
priced a new deal in May 2015
* Woori Bank (WOORIB) A2/A-, mandates BAML/C/Cmz/CA/HSBC/Nom
for investor meeting July 11-20
* Thermo Fisher (TMO) Baa3/BBB, gets loans for FEI (FEIC) buy
via 21 banks
* Investment Corp of Dubai (INVCOR), weighs bond sale; last
issued in May 2014
* Raymond James (RJF) Baa2/BBB, via BAML/JPM/RayJ held
investor meetings June 13-15; last priced a new deal in 2012
* Talk of a possible 10Y issue as soon as today
* Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (SAUDI), said to tap C/HSBC/JPM for
its first international bond sale; kingdom will probably
wait until after summer to sell at least $10b of bonds and
may replicate Qatar’s recent sale by issuing 5y, 10y, 30y
tranches, sources say
* Potash Corp Of Saskatchewan (POT) A3/BBB+, files automatic
debt shelf; last issued March 2015
* Transelec S.A. (TSELEC) Baa1/BBB/BBB, has mandated
C/JPM/Sco/Santan to arrange investor meetings June 30-July
6; potential 144a/Reg-S transaction may follow
* Monsanto (MON) A3/BBB+, still in talks with Bayer (BAYNGR)
A3/A-
* Microsoft (MSFT) Aaa/AAA, added to list of possible issuers,
says Morningstar; also notes PG, DOV as potentials
* Sumitomo Life (SUMILF) A3/BBB+, to hold an investor meeting
July 19, via BofAML; focus to be on hybrid capital
* It last priced a USD deal in 2013
* Korea Gas (KORGAS) Aa2/A+, held investor meetings June
27-30, via C/CS/HSBC/JPM/SG/UBS; 144a/Reg-S transaction may
follow
* KT Corp (KOREAT) Baa1/A-, held investor meetings June 16-24,
via BNP/BAML/C/Nom, for possible USD 144a/Reg-S
* Dubai’s Emaar Properties (EMAAR) Ba1/BBB-, plans potential
USD bond sale
* USAID Ukraine (AID) heard to be in the works with possible
full faith & credit deal
* General Electric Company (GE) A3/AA-, has yet to issue YTD;
parent GE Co has $11.1b maturing this year, $2.3b matured in
May
* GE may be among high grade industrials to add leverage
in 2016, BI says in note
MANDATES/MEETINGS
* Kookmin Bank (CITNAT) A1/A, held investor meetings June
13-17, via BAML/CA/HSBC/Miz
* SMBC Aviation Capital (SMBCAC) held investor calls June 8-9,
via C/CA/JPM/RBC/SMBC; a potential US$ 144a/Reg-S offering
may follow
* National Grid (NGGLN) Baa1/na, hired JPM to hold investor
meetings that ran June 1-3
M&A-RELATED
* Shire (SHPLN) Baa3/BBB-, closed $18b Baxalta acquisition
loan; facilities to be refinanced through capital market
debt issuance
* Zimmer Biomet (ZBH) Baa3/BBB, to acquire LDR for ~$1b; co.
said it plans to issue $750m of sr unsecured notes after
deal completion
* Air Liquide (AIFP) A3/A-, held calls regarding Airgas
refinancing; planned to refinance $12b loan backing the deal
via combination of USD, EUR long-term bonds
* Bayer (BAYNGR) A3/A-, said to secure $63b financing, via
BAML/CS/GS/HSBC/JPM, for Monsanto (MON) A3/BBB+ bid; co.
likely will issue $20-$30b bonds to refinance part of the
bridge loan
* Great Plains Energy (GXP) Baa2/BBB+ to issue long-term
financing including equity, equity-linked securities and
debt prior to closing of Westar Energy (WR) A2/A deal; says
financing mix will allow it to maintain investment-grade
ratings
* Abbott (ABT) A2/A+; ~$5.7b St. Jude buy, ~$3.1b Alere buy
* $17.2b bridge loan commitment (April 28)
* Sherwin-Williams (SHW) A2/A; ~$9.3b Valspar buy
* $8.3b debt financing expected (March 20)
* Teva (TEVA) Baa1/BBB+; ~$40.5b Allergan generics buy
* $22b bridge; $5b TL commitment (Nov 18)
* Duke Energy (DUK) A3/A-; $4.9b Piedmont Natural buy
* $4.9b bridge (Nov 4)
* Anthem (ANTM) Baa2/A-; ~$50.4b Cigna buy
* $26.5b bridge (July 27)
SHELF FILINGS
* ERP Operating LP (EQR) Baa1/A-, filed an automatic debt
securities shelf June 28; last issued $450m 10Y notes May
2015
* Tesla Motors (TSLA); automatic debt, common stk shelf (May
18)
* Debt may convert to common stk
* Reynolds American (RAI) Baa3/BBB filed automatic debt shelf;
sold $9b last June (May 13)
* Statoil (STLNO) Aa3/A+, files debt shelf; last issued USD
Nov. 2014 (May 9)
* Corporate Office (OFC) Baa3/BBB-; debt shelf (April 12)
* Rogers (RCICN) Baa1/BBB+; $4b debt shelf (March 4)
OTHER
* Discovery Communications (DISCA) Baa3/BBB-; may revisit bond
market this yr, BI says (May 18)
* Ford Motor Credit (F) Baa2/BBB; may have ~$7b issuance this
yr (May 10)
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Credit Pipeline
A really simple regression of the US ISM data suggests that June’s growth rate was close to 3%, and Q2 overall was at around 2.3%. This is just another piece of evidence placed in front of a sceptical market but even so, it paints a picture of an economy that is trundling along at the familiar pace of recent years. Factory orders are soft, we’ve had a couple of months of bad employment releases, but my best guess is that growth is still running close to 2%, unable to accelerate, but not yet doomed to slow too sharply. You used to be able to plot the ISM against 10year Treasury yields, adjusted for core CPI, but that’s been a meaningless relationship since 2011.
[http://email.sgresearch.com/Content/PublicationPicture/228555/1]
The next big news point in this regard is tomorrow’s labour market report, of course. We get jobless claims today and the ADP employment survey which is expected to show a 140,000 gain in private sector jobs. Yesterday’s FOMC minutes made clear both the Fed’s uncertainty about the state of the economy at present and their bias, which is that doing nothing is safer than risking doing the wrong thing (raising rates too soon in this instance).
Better US data and a dovish Fed make a recipe for yield-seeking behaviour from investors, but that bias is tempered both by UK-exported market volatility and by the wait for tomorrow’s data. The result today is that FX markets are mixed. NZD, GBP and JPY are all stronger, AUD, NOK and SEK all weaker in G10. S&P downgraded Australia’s Aaa rating outlook to negative, which doesn’t help the currency, while RBNZ Deputy-Governor Grant Spencer’s warning about the threat to financial stability from further rate cuts in the face of a strong housing market, have taken NZD higher across the board.
The NZD/USD bounce may look a bit overdone, but we are more inclined to watch than bang heads against walls shorting it here. We prefer longs in CAD to either AUD or NZD, and we recommend shorts in SGD/CAD.
Japan releases securities flow data overnight that continue to show strong purchases of foreign bonds and equities from Japan. In these risk-averse markets the Yen isn’t going to sell off, but endless appreciation isn’t consistent with these data. I still think that one big driver of the yen rally has been the outflow from Japanese equities by foreign investors, which results in yen hedges being unwound (i.e., in yen buying). That would suggest that once the haemorrhaging from the Nikkei is over, it will be time to go long USD/JPY again, though we’d also want to see US real yields head higher.
Soft German industrial production data this morning may not portend well for the UK figures at 9:30 BST, when we look for manufacturing output to fall by 1.5% m/m. The second round of the UK Conservative party leadership election concludes today, after which there will be two candidates to put before the party membership (unless one of those stands down and leaves a single candidate in place). That of course is merely one further step along the very uncertain road ahead for UK politics – definitely not enough to trigger any durable bounce by the pound.
The news stream out of Europe has been fairly light
China’s foreign reserves rose slightly in June to $3.21 trln
Kiwi is leading the pack today on some RBNZ comments
The Aussie recovered from early losses after S&P cut its outlook on Australia’s AAA rating from stable to negative.
During the North American session, the US reports June Challenger job cuts, ADP jobs, and weekly jobless claims
The dollar is mixed against the majors as markets await fresh drivers. Kiwi and sterling are outperforming while the Swiss franc and the Scandies are underperforming. EM currencies are mostly firmer. KRW and ZAR are outperforming while the CEE currencies are underperforming. MSCI Asia Pacific was up 0.2%, with the Nikkei falling 0.7%. MSCI EM is up 1.1%, despite Chinese markets being marginally lower. Euro Stoxx 600 is up 1.5% near midday, while S&P futures are pointing to a lower open. The 10-year UST yield is up 1 bp at 1.38%. Commodity prices are mixed, with oil up 1%, copper down slightly, and gold flat.
The news stream out of Europe has been fairly light. UK IP fell -0.5% m/m in May vs. -1.0% expected. Manufacturing also fell -0.5% m/m vs. -1.2% expected. Several more UK property funds had to suspend redemptions, bringing the total up to seven since the Brexit vote.The second round of the Tory leadership vote will be held today, with the top two candidates going before a vote by the wider Tory membership. A new leader should be declared by September 9.
German IP fell -1.3% m/m in May vs. a gain of 0.1% that was expected. TheApril gain was revised down to 0.5% from 0.8% previously. This comes on the heel of a weaker than expected German industrial orders report yesterday. While we don’t want to make too much out of one month, the Eurozone economy may have been softening into the Brexit vote, just as the UK was. This bears watching.
The ECB releases minutes from its last policy meeting. At that meeting, the ECB left policy unchanged but gave the markets more details about its corporate bond buying program (CSPP), which it then started the following week. Given that the CSPP has just begun and other measures are still relatively young, the ECB is likely to stand pat for several meetings. The next one is scheduled for July 21, and no action is seen then.
China’s foreign reserves rose slightly in June to $3.21 trln. They were expected to fall to $3.17 trln. This is a good sign that capital outflows from China may have abated. In June, the dollar was firmer against GBP and EUR, and softer against the yen and the dollar bloc. If we assume that the valuation effect was neutral overall, the increase in total reserves suggests that leakages have eased, at least for now.
Kiwi is leading the pack today on some RBNZ comments. Deputy Governor Spencer noted that further rate cuts could pose a risk to financial stability. However, he said that the inflation outlook will ultimately determine monetary policy. Q2 CPI is due out July 18, while the RBNZ next meets August 11. Bloomberg consensus is for a 25 bp cut to 2.0% then. NZD is on track to test the year’s high near .7300, and recent currency strength has tightened monetary conditions.
Elsewhere, the Aussie recovered from early losses after S&P cut its outlook on Australia’s AAA rating from stable to negative. The agency said that the move reflects risks that “material government budget deficits may persist for several years with little improvement.” S&P said there is a one in three chance that the rating is lowered within the next two years if parliament is unable to enact sufficient measures to move to a balanced position by the early 2020s.
During the North American session, the US reports June Challenger job cuts, ADP jobs, and weekly jobless claims. ADP consensus is 160k vs. 173k in May. Canada reports May building permits (1.5% m/m expected) and June Ivey PMI (51.2 expected).
Mexico reports June CPI, which is expected to remain steady at 2.6% y/y. This comes after Banxico hiked rates last week by a larger than expected 50 bp to 4.25%. Clearly, there are no price pressures to speak of, with CPI inflation well below the 3% target. The economy is sluggish (PMI readings fell below 50 in June), while oil prices are getting toppy. We didn’t agree with the aggressive 50 bp hike. The next policy meeting is August 11.
Via Stephen Stanley at Amherst Pierpont Securities:
The main takeaway from the June FOMC meeting minutes is that the heightened uncertainty introduced regarding the labor market situation and the economy generally by the May employment report along with the prospect of the Brexit vote in a weeks’ time justified taking a pass on changing policy last month. Policymakers wanted to wait until the dust from these two sources of risk had cleared. The rhetoric throughout May suggests that most of the Committee was prepared to hike rates, even with Brexit looming, until the weak employment report, but the cooling in job growth in essence made the Brexit situation moot. We know from past experience and from listening closely to the commentary since the June meeting that the FOMC is on hold for a while now. The July FOMC meeting is certainly off the table. September is in play I suppose, but only if everything breaks perfectly. November is out of the question in my view given that it falls less than a week before the presidential election. That leaves December, which is currently my expectation for the next Fed move. Obviously, an awful lot can happen between now and then, so data dependency remains the theme but in a less urgent way than before.
Stepping back from the near-term paralysis induced by the May employment report and Brexit, there is clearly a substantial difference of opinion between the hawks and the doves. It seems that a majority of meeting participants are reasonably satisfied with the progress that has been made in labor markets (or at least were up until the May employment release) and are confident that inflation is in the process of inching up to 2%. Among voting members, the mix is probably closer to even, but there is still a significant contingent, likely at least half, who are concerned about delaying normalization too long. The doves were losing the battle in May and were in a sense bailed out by the May employment report. While the FOMC minutes note multiple times that everyone should “avoid overweighting one or two labor market reports in their consideration of the economic outlook,” in reality the doves did just that, arguing that the outlook fundamentally changed based on one report (with not much corroborating evidence). Market participants have correctly sniffed out that the leadership at the Fed is actively trolling for excuses not to move. To be sure, the Committee had two good ones in June, so the decision to hold steady last month was no surprise, but investors have determined that the Fed will continue to find convenient reasons not to move for about as far as the eye can see.
Given current market pricing, both in the fed funds future contracts and the Treasury market, it is fair to circle back and ask why I think that the FOMC will raise rates at all this year (or ever?). It may be that I am deluded or am favoring hope over reality, but I think the constant discovery of uncertainties and downside risks will not stand up for much longer to a continued tightening in labor markets, complete with a noticeable pickup in wages, and the ongoing steady acceleration in inflation. By the end of this year, the unemployment rate should be unquestionably beyond the Committee’s view of full employment and both headline and core inflation are likely to be approaching 2%. If Chair Yellen and the doves on the Committee can convince themselves and their fellow FOMC members that such a situation still justifies hyper-easy policy, even I will have to tip my hat to their pretzel logic.
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