China Lowers Growth Target to 7 Percent

March 4th, 2015 8:52 pm

Via WSJ:

BEIJING—China lowered its economic growth forecast to about 7% this year at the opening of the country’s biggest political event of the year, ushering in what leaders have dubbed a “new normal” of slower growth in the world’s second-largest economy.

Premier Li Keqiang ’s speech on the economy opened the National People’s Congress, China’s annual legislative session. Last year’s goal was “about 7.5%” though when actual growth came in at 7.4%—the slowest in more than two decades—officials disputed that it represented a miss.

The economic mood is downshifting on almost every front in China, which means that as demand grows for better schools and pensions and cleaner skies, the government is in less and less of a position to provide.

The 7% target was widely expected amid sluggish domestic demand and a slow recovery in the global economy.

In recent weeks, Beijing has unveiled increasingly dramatic moves to spur bank lending in a bid to rekindle economic momentum. But such moves could set back its efforts to shift away from excessive reliance on exports, a bloated property market and government spending.

What strategy Chinese leaders pick matters on a global level. A plan that emphasizes short-term growth could give a boost to a world economy suffering from Europe’s malaise and an unsteady recovery in the U.S., but it could also raise questions about China’s long-term role as a global economic growth engine.

At home, leaders face pressure for more action. Many businesses say they don’t want to borrow or expand given weak demand. Smaller companies that do say banks are holding back credit because of worries about bad loans.

 

“Lower interest rates aren’t such a help,” said Chang Wenfei, general manager of Ake Electronics, a maker of smart gadgets in the southern city of Foshan.

On Thursday, China said it would raise military spending by about 10.1% this year, suggesting that the economic slowdown will have limited impact on modernization plans that include new submarines, aircraft carriers and stealth fighter jets.

“As a large country, China needs the military strength to be able to protect its national security and people,” said Fu Ying, a spokeswoman for the National People’s Congress. “Our history teaches us a lesson that when we lag behind, we come under attack. We won’t forget that.”

China’s defense budget rose by 12.2% last year to about $132 billion, second only to the U.S., although many foreign defense officials and experts say that China’s real military spending may be up to double the official figure. That would still fall far below the Pentagon’s proposed $585 billion spending plan for the coming year.

Meanwhile, income inequality, health care and pensions are among the public’s top concerns, according to state media surveys.

Another is a deteriorating environment, one of the consequences of decades of breakneck growth. A documentary released in recent days that is quietly critical of China’s environmental policies was viewed over 100 million times online, prompting censors to scramble to contain domestic coverage.

“I worry about not having social insurance,” said Yang Jiahua, a 54-year-old security guard at a toy factory in southern Guangdong province. “I keep working here hoping I’ll get a pension. Otherwise I would have been gone long ago. I feel miserable and depressed and don’t have much hope.”

Compounding the job for policy makers is a tighter fiscal environment. China raised its deficit target, which was 2.1% of gross domestic product in 2014, but some economists say China’s actual budget deficit may be closer to 7.5% of GDP, when off-the-book debt by local governments is taken into account. Many economists say they expect that to translate into more monetary easing and expanded government spending as momentum slips and more investors move capital overseas.

That could fuel an equity bubble and let industries off the hook about tackling overcapacity, widely evident in the property sector. In a scene playing out nationwide, dozens of residential towers ringing the northeastern port city of Dalian sit empty, many with Roman-style columns and balustrades evoking earlier days of excess before prices tumbled.

And while jobs have held up well a rise in the politically sensitive unemployment rate could lead to still more stimulus. The latest budget sticks to last year’s target of creating at least 10 million new jobs, though the economy far overshot that, with more than 13 million new jobs added last year.

State investment in the electricity grid is keeping copper wire makers afloat, said Zhang Xuhua, external trade manager of Jiangsu Shangshang Cable Group Co., but two years of tough times have dented industry confidence, he added.

Even companies poised to benefit from increased government spending on road, rail, water and electricity projects say state contracts hardly offset the impact of the broader slowdown.

“The bank credit situation still hasn’t improved very much,” added a cable-firm owner surnamed Bian in China’s eastern city of Yixing, a major copper manufacturing base, whose company recently folded.

On Corporate Bond Spreads

March 4th, 2015 8:48 pm

Via Merrill Lynch Research:

  • From weakness to strength. Spreads on our high grade corporate bond index are now 23bps off their end-of-January local wides of 153bps – note though that 5bps was related to downgraded names like Petrobras leaving the index. This sharp rally in spreads happened as 5-year, 5-year forward inflation expectations halted their precipitous decline, and in fact began to increase. That broke the depressing 2H 2014 investor view that global weakness was going to infect the US economy, not only leading to lower current inflation and oil prices, but depressing economic activity for a decade. Prompting this turn in fortunes was the very strong US employment report in early February confirming that the US economy is very resilient to global weakness, as well as consistent upward surprises to European economic data that subtracted from the global weakness story itself. While the rebound in oil prices was helpful as well, given evidence of relatively stronger US and foreign growth, we think long term inflation expectations are ready to decouple from a plausible additional down move in oil prices.
  • We continue to think that the relevant question to ask is not whether global weakness pulls down the US economy, but whether the combination of a strong US economy, lower oil prices and depreciating currencies vs. the dollar add upside risk to the global economy. This would turn concern about weakness into concern about strength and, add to the risk that the correlation between credit spreads and break even inflations eventually turns positive and spreads widen back out. However, for the short term (0-2 months), until investors become sufficiently concerned about the rate hiking cycle, we remain tactically overweight.Hans Mikkelsen (Page 4)
  • EM Corporate Monthly (+Chartbook): Fallen Angels, Rising Prices. Risk-on in EM despite largest fallen angel volume in history. February was a historic month for the EM corporate market as we saw the average ratings of 56 bonds, totaling $73bn, fall to HY from IG as of the 2/28 rebalancing. This is the highest ever volume of “fallen angels” in a single month and compares to a previous high of just $6.5bn (Oct ’14). Fallen angels in February alone represent 45% of the par amount of all fallen angels in the EM corporate market’s history (since 1998). From 1998 through January 2015, the sum of all EM corp fallen angel debt was $88bn, just $15bn higher than the volume in February alone. The fallen angels in February represent 8.1% of the size of the EM IG corp market they fell from and 21.6% of the size of the EM HY market they entered. Christopher Hays, Camila Torrente, Anne Milne (Page 5)
  • Euro Area Watch: QE: Dead on arrival? Not so fast. We argued just ahead of the announcement of QE that the ECB would be lucky, with the cycle turning up early enough after the first implementation of the new batch of unconventional measures to allow the Governing Council to claim victory and attribute the recovery to its monetary stance. But in a sense, the ECB could be “too lucky”, and face such a solid and quick upturn in economic activity which would, in retrospect, make QE look like “overkill”. According to the sceptics who always questioned the validity of bond buying, with the release of a new batch of forecasts this Thursday pointing to stronger GDP growth and, possibly, a pace for inflation which, by the end of 2017, could be close to the ECB’s definition of price stability, Draghi would have trouble defending the necessity of QE. This, combined with the difficulty of actually sourcing EUR 60bn per month, would jeopardize the credibility of the program. We strongly disagree. We think that the central bank will make it plain that reaching a pace of inflation which would be not too significantly lower than 2% by the end 2017 – which we think is the “policy relevant horizon – is actually conditional on the implementation of QE.Gilles Moec, Ruben Segura-Cayuela (Page 6)

FX

March 4th, 2015 6:52 am

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman:

Dollar Firms, Euro Slides As Service PMIs Disappoint

- BOC Governor Poloz dampened expectations for a cut today with last week’s reiteration that the January rate cut was an insurance policy to buy time
- The Reserve Bank of India surprised with yet another unscheduled rate cut overnight, while China cut the rate on its lending facility
- Japan, UK, and the eurozone reported somewhat disappointing service PMI figures
- The euro continues to trade heavily ahead of tomorrow’s ECB meeting
- Poland central bank meets and is expected to cut rates 25 bp to 1.75%; Brazil central bank meets and is expected to hike rates 50 bp to 12.75%

Price action:  The dollar is mostly firmer against the majors.  The antipodeans are outperforming, while the Loonie is not participating in a broad dollar bloc rally with the BOC meeting later today.  The euro is underperforming, trading just above the $1.11 level, the January cycle low.  Sterling is being dragged lower, trading just above the $1.53 area.  Dollar/yen is trading just below 120.  EM currencies are mostly weaker.  CEE currencies are underperforming.  INR initially firmed after the surprise RBI rate cut, but has since weakened with the rest of EM.  MSCA Asia Pacific fell 0.6%, with the Nikkei down 0.6% and the Shanghai Composite up 0.5%.  Euro Stoxx 600 is down 0.1% near midday, while S&P futures are pointing to a lower open.

  • BOC Governor Poloz dampened expectations for a cut today with last week’s reiteration that the January rate cut was an insurance policy to buy time.  Yesterday’s somewhat firmer than expected Q4 GDP (2.4% vs. 2.0% consensus) should have solidified such expectations, but the details were less encouraging, keeping some wary of a cut today.  Inventory accumulation accounted for 0.4 percentage points while the two sectors the central bank has identified as key for the recovery, investment and exports, both fell.  
  • The US dollar has been carving out a large triangle pattern against the Canadian dollar since the end of January.  The bottom of the triangle is flattish around CAD1.2450.  The top is marked by a falling trend line that coming in now near CAD1.2620.  We look for an eventual break higher.  
  • Earlier today, India surprised the market with another 25 bp rate cut (to 7.50%) between central bank meetings.  The timing surprised the market, and it seemed to be at least in part to a response to the recent budget agreement.  China, which cut key lending rates over the weekend, followed up today with a cut in the short-term lending facility.  The overnight rate was cut 50 bp to 4.50%, and the 7-day repo rate was cut to 5.5% from 7%.  
  • Turning to the other BRIC countries, we note that Brazil is widely expected to hike the Selic rate later today by 50 bp to 12.75%.   Russia’s central bank meets at the end of next week, and many are looking for it to cut its key rate, which stands at 15%, having peaked at 17%  before the late January cut.  
  • Japan, UK, and the eurozone reported somewhat disappointing service PMI figures.  Japan’s was the most disturbing.  It fell to 48.5 from 51.3, the lowest since April 2014.  The  eurozone service PMI slipped to 53.7 from the 53.9 flash reading.  It is still higher than the January’s 52.7 reading.  Hence, the report does not undermine the idea that the region is finding better traction.  
  • The UK’s service PMI slipped to 56.7 from 57.2 in January.  The consensus anticipated a small increase to 57.5.  The composite PMI was unchanged at 56.7 as well.  This seems broadly consistent with around 0.6% quarterly GDP.  Despite the respectable growth, the deflation headwinds appear to have strengthened as BRC shop prices fell 1.7% (accelerating from -1.3%).  Food prices are -0.4% lower than a year ago (vs -0.5% in January), while non-food prices are off 2.5% (after -1.8% in previously).  
  • The euro continues to trade heavily ahead of tomorrow’s ECB meeting.  The optionality and stops around $1.1150 were taken out, and the euro is approaching the $1.11 area, which is thought to hold additional barriers.  As has characterized Draghi’s tenure at the helm of the ECB, a bold action is announced, which is light on details.  Later, those details are provided.  That is what tomorrow’s ECB meeting is largely about, details of its sovereign bond purchase plans.  
  • In addition to the Bank of Canada meeting, the North American session features the US service ISM, which is expected to be slightly softer than the 56.7 reading in January, and more importantly the ADP employment estimate.  The ADP report appears to have stolen some of the thunder from the national report.  However, barring a major surprise with the job creation, which has been particularly volatile, the focus has shifted toward earnings.  
  • The ADP report sheds no light on hourly earnings.  However, there are a number of developments that point to some modest upside pressure, which the Federal Reserve would like to see before hiking rates.  First, as we have noted many cities and states have raised or will raise the minimum wage.  There has been industrial action on West Coast ports that is now resolved.  There is also one of the largest strikes against refineries in a couple of decades.  This remains unresolved.  Walmart and T.J. Maxx are raising wages this year and next.  That could impact as many as 8 mln workers.  
  • Oil prices are firmer following yesterday’s API report that showed less than a 3 mln barrel build in inventories, somewhat less than expected.  The official Department of Energy estimate will be released later today.  Meanwhile, the Saudis, heading off calls for an emergency OPEC meeting, suggest that the market is stabilizing.  Saudi Arabia boosted prices to Asia, where the competition has been among the fiercest, by the most in three years (reduces discount).  
  • Poland central bank meets and is expected to cut rates 25 bp to 1.75%.  However, the market is split.  Of the 36 analysts polled by Bloomberg, 23 see a 25 bp cut, 11 see a 50 bp cut, and 2 see no change.  Deflation risks are intensifying, and Governor Belka has strongly hinted that easing would resume.  It has been on hold since the surprise 50 bp cut back in October.  Since then, the macro outlook has dimmed.
  • Brazil reports January IP, expected to rise 2.0% y/y vs. -2.8% in December.  COPOM meets later in the day and is expected to hike rates by another 50 bp to 12.75%.  On Friday, Brazil reports February IPCA inflation, expected to rise 7.57% y/y vs. 7.14% in January.  Market now sees 25 bp additional tightening to 13% after today, but the rate path will depend on many things going just right for Brazil.  Price pressures are still rising, and so there is a risk of even more tightening in the pipeline.  USD/BRL continues to make new cycle highs, and a 3 handle seems only a matter of time.  

What to Watch for Today

March 4th, 2015 6:50 am

Via Bloomberg:

WHAT TO WATCH:
* (All times New York)
Economic Data
* 7:00am: MBA Mortgage Applications, Feb. 27 (prior -3.5%)
* 8:15am: ADP Employment Change, Feb., est. 219k (prior 213k)
* 9:45am: Markit US Composite PMI, Feb. final (prior 56.8)
* Markit US Services PMI, Feb. final, est. 57 (prior 57)
* Markit US Services PMI, Feb. final, est. 57 (prior 57)</li></ul>
* 10:00am: ISM Non-Mfg Composite, Feb., est. 56.5 (prior 56.7)
Central Banks
* 9:00am: Fed’s Evans speaks in Lake Forest, Ill.
* 10:00am: Bank of Canada sets benchmark interest rate, est.
0.75% (prior
* 1:00pm: Fed’s George speaks in Kansas City, Mo
* 2:00pm: Fed releases Beige Book
* 5:00pm: Fed’s Fisher speaks in El Paso, Texas

Secondary Market Corporate Bond Trading Yesterday

March 4th, 2015 6:12 am

Via Bloomberg:

IG CREDIT: PETBRA Issues Led Trading; BOEN, CBAAU in Pipeline
2015-03-04 11:00:28.265 GMT

By Robert Elson
(Bloomberg) — Secondary IG trading ended with a Trace
count of $16.6b vs $12.9b Monday, $17.9b last Tuesday. 10-DMA
$16.1b.
* 144a trading added $1.9b of IG volume vs $1.7b Monday, $2.1b
last Tuesday
* Most active issues longer than 3 years
* PETBRA 6.25% 2024 was 1st with 2-way client flows
accounting for 79% of volume
* PETBRA 5.375% 2021 was next; client flows at 85%
* ACT 3.85% 2024; client flows at 58%
* ACT 3.85% 2024; client flows at 58%</li></ul>
* GLENLN 4.625% 2024 was most active 144a issue; client flows
accounted for 100% of volume with sellings 2x buying
* BofAML IG Master Index at +130, a new tight for 2015, vs
+131; 2014 range was +151, seen Dec 16; +106, the low and
tightest spread since July 2007 was seen June 24
* Standard & Poor’s Global Fixed Income Research IG Index at
+171, a new tight level for 2015, vs +172; +183 was the wide
for 2015; +182, the wide for 2014, was seen Jan. 16; +140,
the 2014 low and post-crisis low was seen July 30, 2014
* Markit CDX.IG.22 5Y Index at 61.8 vs 60.8; 76.1, the wide
for 2014 was seen Dec 16; 55 was seen July 3, the low for
2014 and the lowest level since Oct 2007
* IG issuance totaled $37.25b Tuesday, the 2nd largest day
ever, vs $2.15b Monday (HBHC upsized to $150m)
* YTD IG issuance $306.525b
* Pipeline: CADES to price today; BOEN, CBAAU added to list

Unintended Consequence

March 3rd, 2015 10:53 pm

Liability driven investors are the financial road kill of zero and negative rates.

Via Bloomberg:
Draghi’s Rescue Plan Has Created a $103 Billion Problem
S&P Says Sinking Bond Yields Have Worsened Pension Shortfalls
Don’t Miss Out —
Follow us on:
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by Jennifer Ryan
4:39 AM EST
March 3, 2015
 

There’s a corner of the pension world that needs to brace itself for Mario Draghi.

His European Central Bank’s 1.1 trillion euro ($1.2 trillion) bond-buying plan might have already blown a 92 billion-euro hole in defined-benefit pension plans by depressing bond yields, Standard & Poor’s said Feb. 26. And if the actual start of QE pushes yields further, for longer, companies may have to take drastic measures to make ends meet, and could face a hit to their credit ratings.

The ECB is expected to announce further details of its asset-purchase program after it meets in Cyprus Thursday.

S&P estimates that the anticipation of quantitative easing in Europe squashed bond yields so much that the liabilities of defined-benefit pension plans rose by up to 18 percent last year. Its analysis looked at the top 50 European companies it rates that have defined-benefit pension plans and are “materially underfunded,” meaning, the plans have deficits of more than 10 percent of adjusted debt, and that debt is more than 1 billion euros. In 2013, liabilities outstripped obligations for that group by more than 30 percent on average.

“The challenge for companies in coming years will be how to rein in plan deficits in the new post-QE low interest-rate environment in Europe,” Paul Watters, credit analyst at S&P, said in a statement. “This will become a more material credit consideration where defined-benefit plan deficits are significant.”

Among the measures S&P says companies may have to take to adjust to this new low-yield world are freezes on pensionable salaries, raising the retirement age, and closing plans to new or even to existing members.

And that’s not the end of it. A potential cocktail of low bond yields, sluggish growth and faster inflation, which could result if QE fails to kickstart activity, could push those deficits out a further 10-15 percent.

“The risk remains that QE achieves nothing more than promoting stagflation in the euro area,” Watters said. “A combination of weak growth, inducing the ECB to continue with its aggressive monetary-policy stance, and rising inflation would be a treacherous combination for DB-pension schemes already struggling to contain their plan deficits.”

Overnight Data Preview

March 3rd, 2015 8:31 pm

I am late with this but better late than never.

Via Robert Sinche at Amherst Pierpont Securities:

RATE DECISIONS BY THE BANK OF CANADA (expected unchanged) AND CENTRAL BANK OF BRAZIL (expected 50bp hike to 12.75%).

AUSTRALIA: The BBerg consensus expects 4Q real GDP growth to slow to 2.5% from 2.7% in 3Q, slightly below the 2.8% average of the last decade.

CHINA: The final Markit Services and Composite PMIs for February will be released, with the January Composite PMI at 51.0 was the lowest since May.

INDIA: The final Markit Services and Composite PMIs for February will be released, with the January Composite PMI at 53.3, above the average 51.4 in 2014.

JAPAN: The final Markit Services and Composite PMIs for February will be released, with the January Composite PMI at 51.7, above the average of 50.9 in 2014.

RUSSIA: The final Markit Services and Composite PMIs for February will be released, with the January Composite PMI at 45.6 a record low.

EURO ZONE: Final Composite and Services PMIs will be released for the EZ, Germany, France, Italy and Spain. The BBerg consensus expects overall EZ Retail sales volume growth to slow to 2.3% from 2.8%, but the surprisingly strong retail sales surge in Germany reported today suggests an upside surprise to the consensus.

UK: The final Markit Services and Composite PMIs for February will be released, with the January Composite PMI at 56.7 was slightlky below the 57.9 average of 2014 but still a sign of solid growth.

Merrill Lynch Research on Today’s Gargantuan Corporate Bond Issuance

March 3rd, 2015 8:24 pm

Via Merrill Lynch Research:

Bondnanza
Summary
  • The ACT deal today did not exhaust the market’s ability to absorb bonds, as evidenced by $10bn supply from other issuers.
  • The strong investor reception for the ACT deal helped allay concerns that the pick-up in supply volumes will weigh on spreads
  • The newly issued bonds traded on average 21bps tighter on the break and closed as much as 30bps tighter.
  • Bondnanza. Today’s pricing of the $21bn Actavis bond deal kicked off a busy high grade primary market for March. The new deal for ACT is the second biggest on record after the $49bn VZ deal from September 2013. Moreover, the large ACT deal did not exhaust the market’s ability to absorb bonds, as evidenced by $10bn that also priced from five other credits, bringing total new issue volume to $31bn – also the second busiest day on record. Despite such heavy a new issue calendar ACT enjoyed very strong investor reception, helping allay concerns that the pick-up in supply volumes will weigh on spreads. Reasons for such strong deal performance include 1) that investors generally like issuers that already had their event, 2) more attractive yield levels with the rebound in rates, 3) inflows from global fixed income, 4) the diversion of USD supply to the EUR primary market and 5) significant ongoing ratings transition for current IG issuers into HY (Petrobras etc.) – Yuriy Shchuchinov, Hans Mikkelsen (Page 3)
  • Decline in both CDX IG & HY net longs. Non-dealer investor net long-risk positioning declined to $43.8bn for CDX IG last week (as of February 27th), down from $45.1bn net long positioning in the prior week. At the same time, net long risk investor positioning for CDX HY declined to $4.0bn last week from $4.6bn in the prior week. Given that CDX HY is about four times more volatile as IG, the current $4.0bn net long positioning for CDX HY corresponds to about $16.0bn CDX IG net long in terms of risk. This implies that the current net long positioning in CDX IG remains meaningfully above that of CDX HY in terms of risk. - Jon Lieberkind (Page 5)
  • ECB preview: Technicalities matter. The market awaits clarification on QE details. With QE announced and pre-committed until Sep-16, suspense on ECB policy should be minimal (for a while at least). From spring 2016 onward, we are likely to once again start scrutinizing whether the programme will continue after September. However, in the meantime the debate is likely to focus on the technicalities of QE; if and how the central bank manages to deliver on its pledge to purchase EUR60bn of securities every month. It is from this point of view that next Thursday’s meeting will be important. – Gilles Moec, Ruairi Hourihane, Athanasios Vamvakidis (Page 7)
  • Auto Sales Snapshot: February 2015 SAAR ran at 16.2mn units. The February 2015 U.S. light-vehicle SAAR ran at 16.1mn units, up from 15.4mn units a year ago. This is below BofAML’s estimate of 16.5mn units and market consensus of 16.6mn units. We note that poor weather partly contributed to softer industry volumes. February 2015 and February 2014 both had 24 selling days, so YoY growth rates were not adjusted. – Douglas Karson, Mark Hammond, Max Hubbard (Page 6)

Gigantic Day in Corporate Bond market

March 3rd, 2015 5:28 pm

Via Bloomberg:

IG CREDIT: Daily Volume Tops $30b, Led by $21b 10-Part ACT Deal
2015-03-03 20:09:11.992 GMT

By Lisa Loray
(Bloomberg) — $37.25b is expected to price from 9 issuers,
including 3 SAS deals totaling $6b, for the second-busiest day
on record.
* Today’s single session is the highest daily volume YTD and
higher volume than 4 of 8 weeks this year.  Weekly volume to
$39.4, YTD $306.25b
* Volume sans SAS:  Daily $31.25b, Weekly $33.4, YTD $259.675b
* Two blockbuster trades headlined today’s calendarL Actavis
(ACT) Baa3/BBB- lead with its much anticipated $21.0b 10-
part offering, the largest jumbo deal YTD and the second-
biggest on record after Verizon’s $49b.  Exxon Mobil (XOM)
Aaa/AAA priced $8.0b 7-part deal, tied with MRK for the
third largest jumbo deal YTD
* Five FRNs are set to price $2.5b, highest daily FRN volume
of 2015; YTD FRN volume $29.15b
* Today’s trades tightened an average of ~17.5bp from IPT to
pricing
* Domestic Corps
* $21.0b Actavis Funding SCS Baa3/BBB- 10-part
* $500m 18mo FRN at 3mL+87.5 (IPT 3mL+100A, guide 3mL+90A)
* $1.0b  2Y at T+120 (IPT T+135-140, guide T+120-125)
* $3.0b  3Y at T+130 (IPT T+145-150, guide T+130-135)
* $500m  3Y FRN at 3mL+108
* $3.5b  5Y at T+140 (IPT T+160-165, guide T+140-145)
* $500m  5Y FRN at 3mL+125.5 (added at guidance)
* $3.0b  7Y at T+155 (IPT T+180-185, guide T+160A)
* $4.0b 10Y at T+175 (IPT T+200A, guide T+180A)
* $2.5b 20Y at T+190 (IPT T+220A, guide T+195A)
* $2.5b 30Y at T+210 (IPT T+240A, guide T+215A)
* $2.5b 30Y at T+210 (IPT T+240A, guide T+215A)</li></ul>
* $8.0b Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) Aaa/AAA 7-part
* $1.6b  3Y at T+23 (IPT T+low 30s, guide T+25A)
* $500m  3Y FRN at 3mL+5
* $1.5b  5Y at T+30 (IPT T+low 40s, guide T+35A)
* $1.15b  7Y at T+45 (IPT T+mid 50s, guide T+50A)
* $500m  7Y FRN at 3mL+37
* $1.75b 10Y at T+58 (IPT T+low 70s, guide T+60A)
* $1.0b 30Y at T+85 (IPT T+high 90s, guide T+90A)
* $1.0b 30Y at T+85 (IPT T+high 90s, guide T+90A)</li></ul>
* $500m PACCAR Financial Corp (PCAR) A1/A+ 3Y at T+42 (IPT
T+low 50s, guide T+45A)
* $250m Idaho Power Co (IDA) A1/A- 30Y FMB at T+100 (IPT
T+115-120, guide T+105A)
* Domestic Financials
* $1.0b Charles Schwab Corp (SCHW) A2/A 2-part
* $625m  3Y at T+47 (IPT T+62.5A, guide T+50A)
* $375m 10Y at T+93 (IPT 112.5A, guide T+95A)
* $375m 10Y at T+93 (IPT 112.5A, guide T+95A)</li></ul>
* $500m Marsh & McLennan Co (MMC) Baa1/A- 5Y at T+75 (IPT
T+90A)
* SAS
* $1.0b Council of Europe (COE) Aa1/AA+ 5Y Global at MS flat
* $1.0b KFW (KFW) Aaa/AAA 18mo Global at MS-12
* $4.0b European Investment Bank (EIB) 3Y Global at MS+5

Auto Sales Disappoint in February

March 3rd, 2015 3:46 pm

Via Bloomberg ;

AUTO SALES WRAP: Feb. Sales Miss Ests. Across the Board
2015-03-03 19:59:35.285 GMT

By Libby Sallaberry McGowan
(Bloomberg) — U.S. and Japanese Big 3 automakers all
missed estimates for auto sales in February; Autodata says Feb.
SAAR 16.23m, missing Bloomberg est. for Feb. SAAR of 16.6m.
* JPMorgan: Weather appears to have been bigger factor in the
final days of the month, after analysts had conducted 20-day
channel checks, helping to explain shortfall vs ests.
* RBC: Soft sales due to weaker fleet sales, weather issues
and “general softness” after Feb. 20

Big 3:
* GM Feb. Sales Miss Ests.; Sees Industry Feb. SAAR 16.5m
* Ford Feb. U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Fell 2%, Missing Est.
* Fiat Chrysler U.S. Feb. Sales Miss Ests.

Big 3 Japan:
* Nissan Feb. U.S. Auto Sales Up 2.7%, Est. Up 3.8%
* Toyota Feb. U.S. Auto Sales Miss Ests.
* Honda Feb. U.S. Auto Sales Rise 5%, Missing Estimate