{"id":24815,"date":"2016-02-12T10:03:55","date_gmt":"2016-02-12T15:03:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/acrossthecurve.com\/?p=24815"},"modified":"2016-02-12T10:03:55","modified_gmt":"2016-02-12T15:03:55","slug":"retail-sales-recap-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/acrossthecurve.com\/?p=24815","title":{"rendered":"Retail Sales Recap"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Via\u00a0 TDSecurities:<\/p>\n<p id=\"yui_3_16_0_1_1455288884272_3240\" class=\"yiv3221014266MsoNormal\"><b id=\"yui_3_16_0_1_1455288884272_3239\"><span id=\"yui_3_16_0_1_1455288884272_3238\" lang=\"EN-US\">TD SECURITIES DATAFLASH\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n<p class=\"yiv3221014266MsoNormal\"><b><span lang=\"EN-US\">US: Retail Sales Start 2016 on their Front Foot<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n<ul id=\"yui_3_16_0_1_1455288884272_3166\" type=\"disc\">\n<li id=\"yui_3_16_0_1_1455288884272_3165\" class=\"yiv3221014266MsoNormal\"><b id=\"yui_3_16_0_1_1455288884272_3164\"><span id=\"yui_3_16_0_1_1455288884272_3163\" lang=\"EN-US\">Retail Sales rose by a stronger-than expected 0.2% m\/m in January. Measures of core sales showed an even more robust gain with a healthy breadth of spending. The prior month was also revised higher to also show a 0.2% m\/m gain in headline sales.<\/span><\/b><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul id=\"yui_3_16_0_1_1455288884272_3180\" type=\"disc\">\n<li id=\"yui_3_16_0_1_1455288884272_3179\" class=\"yiv3221014266MsoNormal\"><b id=\"yui_3_16_0_1_1455288884272_3178\"><span id=\"yui_3_16_0_1_1455288884272_3177\" lang=\"EN-US\">On a very volatile week without much in the way of top tier economic data, this print provides a strong counterpoint to market sentiment increasingly focused on downside risks to the US economy. It is likely too soon to assess the full impact of recent market turmoil on the wider economy. We look to measures of confidence as the conduit from market stresses to measures of economic activity. \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/b><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p id=\"yui_3_16_0_1_1455288884272_3191\" class=\"yiv3221014266MsoNormal\"><span id=\"yui_3_16_0_1_1455288884272_3190\" lang=\"EN-US\">The US consumer remained resilient through the end of the year and into 2016. Retail sales rose by 0.2% m\/m in January (market: +0.1%, TDS: -0.1%) and the prior month was revised higher from a 0.1% drop to a 0.2% gain. The composition of sales in January were also quite robust. Excluding autos and gasoline, sales rose by 0.4% while the control group increased by an even more impressive 0.6%. This latter gain more than offset the 0.3% decline observed in December. A deeper dive into the January data shows the expected impact of lower gasoline prices, as revenues at gasoline stations fell by 3.1% in the month (the largest drop since September). At the other end of the spectrum, sales at non-store retailers jumped by 1.6% in the month and other pro-cyclical sectors observed somewhat more muted gains. <\/span><\/p>\n<p id=\"yui_3_16_0_1_1455288884272_3192\" class=\"yiv3221014266MsoNormal\"><span lang=\"EN-US\"> \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p id=\"yui_3_16_0_1_1455288884272_3194\" class=\"yiv3221014266MsoNormal\"><span id=\"yui_3_16_0_1_1455288884272_3193\" lang=\"EN-US\">The sparse data calendar this week likely exacerbated the significant amount of market turmoil as there was no counterpoint to growing fears that the US economy was either slipping towards or already in recession. With this data now in hand, the market has begun to reassess how far it had moved and the initial response has provided risk assets with a tentative boost. In gauging the durability of this move, it may simply be the case that the impact of financial market turmoil has yet to have an impact on the economy. We would therefore stress the importance of the measures of confidence as the key conduit between the market and activity measures. To this end, the preliminary University of Michigan measure of consumer confidence due out later this morning stands as an important release. TD expects the headline index to fall from 92.0 to 91.0 while the market is more optimistic in forecasting an increase to 92.3.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Via\u00a0 TDSecurities: TD SECURITIES DATAFLASH\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 US: Retail Sales Start 2016 on their Front Foot Retail Sales rose by a stronger-than expected 0.2% m\/m in January. Measures of core sales showed an even more robust gain with a healthy breadth of spending. The prior month was also revised higher to also show a 0.2% m\/m gain [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-24815","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9YXi-6sf","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/acrossthecurve.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24815","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/acrossthecurve.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/acrossthecurve.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acrossthecurve.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acrossthecurve.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=24815"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/acrossthecurve.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24815\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":24816,"href":"https:\/\/acrossthecurve.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24815\/revisions\/24816"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/acrossthecurve.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=24815"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acrossthecurve.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=24815"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acrossthecurve.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=24815"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}