{"id":24665,"date":"2016-02-05T09:16:42","date_gmt":"2016-02-05T14:16:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/acrossthecurve.com\/?p=24665"},"modified":"2016-02-05T09:16:42","modified_gmt":"2016-02-05T14:16:42","slug":"labor-report-7","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/acrossthecurve.com\/?p=24665","title":{"rendered":"Labor Report"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Via TDSecurities:<\/p>\n<p id=\"yui_3_16_0_1_1454681695446_1868\" class=\"yiv5061323224MsoNormal\"><b id=\"yui_3_16_0_1_1454681695446_1867\"><span id=\"yui_3_16_0_1_1454681695446_1866\" lang=\"EN-US\">D SECURITIES DATAFLASH\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n<p id=\"yui_3_16_0_1_1454681695446_1875\" class=\"yiv5061323224MsoNormal\"><b id=\"yui_3_16_0_1_1454681695446_1874\"><span id=\"yui_3_16_0_1_1454681695446_1873\" lang=\"EN-US\">US: Mixed Start to the Labor Market for 2016<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n<ul id=\"yui_3_16_0_1_1454681695446_2095\" type=\"disc\">\n<li id=\"yui_3_16_0_1_1454681695446_2094\" class=\"yiv5061323224MsoNormal\"><b id=\"yui_3_16_0_1_1454681695446_2093\"><span id=\"yui_3_16_0_1_1454681695446_2092\" lang=\"EN-US\">The labor market added 151k jobs in January, which was a touch below expectations. The unemployment rate slipped to 4.9% following a robust employment gain in the household survey. The underlying details suggest a seasonal lift from better weather while average hourly earnings posted a healthy 0.5% m\/m rebound following a flat print in the prior month. <\/span><\/b><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul id=\"yui_3_16_0_1_1454681695446_1879\" type=\"disc\">\n<li id=\"yui_3_16_0_1_1454681695446_1878\" class=\"yiv5061323224MsoNormal\"><b id=\"yui_3_16_0_1_1454681695446_1877\"><span id=\"yui_3_16_0_1_1454681695446_1876\" lang=\"EN-US\">While this report was not unambiguously positive, it shows a steady pace of hiring that stands in contrast to a wide swath of economic data that points to decelerating economic momentum. The Fed will take solace in the longer-term employment trend but their focus is on assessing the impact of recent market volatility on measures of real activity. \u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/b><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p id=\"yui_3_16_0_1_1454681695446_1884\" class=\"yiv5061323224MsoNormal\"><span id=\"yui_3_16_0_1_1454681695446_1899\" lang=\"EN-US\">Following a robust pace of hiring to end 2015, the US labor market added 151k jobs in January. This was a touch below the consensus (190k) and our more pessimistic forecast for the creation of 177k jobs. The composition of job gains showed a tilt towards industries that typically benefit from warmer weather across most of the country, including a 58k gain in retail trade and a 44k increase in leisure and hospitality. Outside of these two sectors, the pace of job gains in overall services slowed, which is consistent with the deceleration in the non-manufacturing ISM survey. Elsewhere in this report, a strong addition in the household survey (+615k) helped cut the unemployment rate from 5.0% to 4.9%. In an equally encouraging development, average hourly wages which rebounded by a brisk 0.5% m\/m following the flat print in December (which was likely due to calendar effects because of a later survey). <\/span><\/p>\n<p id=\"yui_3_16_0_1_1454681695446_1898\" class=\"yiv5061323224MsoNormal\"><span lang=\"EN-US\"> \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p id=\"yui_3_16_0_1_1454681695446_1886\" class=\"yiv5061323224MsoNormal\"><span id=\"yui_3_16_0_1_1454681695446_1885\" lang=\"EN-US\">The Federal Reserve will be comforted by the rebound in the wage series and by the longer-term trend in employment that is consistent with a further healing in the labor market. Keep in mind that this was not a pristine report and the pace of employment would likely be weaker if it were not for the influence of warmer temperatures across most of the country. When thinking about the next rate hike, this report in isolation supports the &#8216;gradual pace&#8217; narrative, though the focus of the Fed will likely be on assessing the impact of the recent turmoil in financial markets on more contemporaneous measures of economic activity. On this front, we are generally more cautious in acknowledgement of a softer trajectory for both the trade sector and more importantly domestic demand.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Via TDSecurities: D SECURITIES DATAFLASH\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 US: Mixed Start to the Labor Market for 2016 The labor market added 151k jobs in January, which was a touch below expectations. The unemployment rate slipped to 4.9% following a robust employment gain in the household survey. The underlying details suggest a seasonal lift from better weather while average [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-24665","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9YXi-6pP","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/acrossthecurve.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24665","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/acrossthecurve.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/acrossthecurve.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acrossthecurve.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acrossthecurve.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=24665"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/acrossthecurve.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24665\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":24666,"href":"https:\/\/acrossthecurve.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24665\/revisions\/24666"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/acrossthecurve.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=24665"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acrossthecurve.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=24665"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acrossthecurve.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=24665"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}