Via CRT Capital:<\/p>\n
*** This month’s employment proxies are nearly evenly split with 7 positive vs. 6 negative.\u00a0 However, the positive data points are especially relevant, namely Initial Claims, ISM non-manufacturing, and ADP.\u00a0 On the other hand, the negative anecdotes include ISM and Empire State.\u00a0 It’s worth noting that at just +182k the bar for an upside surprise is lower than it’s been since February 2014. ***<\/p>\n
Positive:
\n1) Initial Claims for NFP-survey week were lower at 259k Oct vs. 267k Sept and 277k Aug. 4-week moving-average 263.25k Oct vs. 272.5k Sept. Record low on a labor force\/population adjusted bases.
\n2) Continuing Claims for Oct NFP-survey week were lower at 2.146 mm vs. 2.195 mm Sept.
\n3) ADP Employment Change -higher-than-expected at 182k Oct vs. 180k consensus and above the Private-NFP consensus of 169k.
\n4) Challenger Layoffs were lower at -1.3% YoY Oct vs. +93.2% Sept.\u00a0 Monthly change was -8.4k Oct vs. +17.7k Sept.
\n5) ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment increased in Oct to 59.2 vs. 58.3 Sept – Second highest of the cycle.
\n6) Historically, the November NFP (October data) release doesn’t have a strong bias, coming in higher 50% of the time for an average +76k.\u00a0 When the release disappoints (50% of occurrences) the average miss is just -40k.\u00a0 On a shorter history, three of the last five years November NFPs have come in above consensus for an average of +74k.
\n7) The November Unemployment print (October data) comes in lower-than-expected 50% of the time, higher 22% and as-expected the balance.\u00a0 The lower prints have averaged -0.11% vs. higher prints that have a +0.20% norm.<\/p>\n
Negative:
\n1) ISM Manufacturing Employment decreased in Oct to 47.6 vs. 50.5 Sept – fourth consecutive decline.
\n2) Liscio’s employment forecast is a touch below consensus at +165k private-NFP and +173k NFP.\u00a0 UNR seen at 5.0% vs. 5.0% consensus.
\n3) Empire State Employment decreased to -8.5 Oct vs. -6.2 Sept. Average Workweek moved higher however, reaching -7.6 Oct vs. -10.3 Sept – although still negative.
\n4) Philadelphia Fed Number of Employees decreased to -1.7 Oct vs. +10.2 Sept. Average workweek decreased -7.3 Oct vs. +7.0 Sept.
\n5) Labor Differential: Jobs-Hard-to-Get minus Plentiful decreased to -3.6 Oct vs. -0.1 Sept.
\n6) Chicago PMI showed the employment gauge slipped to 50.6 Oct vs.\u00a0 52.2 Sept – nonetheless still >50 and suggesting growth in the labor market.<\/p>\n
Unknown:
\n1) NFIB employment index<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Via CRT Capital: *** This month’s employment proxies are nearly evenly split with 7 positive vs. 6 negative.\u00a0 However, the positive data points are especially relevant, namely Initial Claims, ISM non-manufacturing, and ADP.\u00a0 On the other hand, the negative anecdotes include ISM and Empire State.\u00a0 It’s worth noting that at just +182k the bar for […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-23589","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9YXi-68t","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/acrossthecurve.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23589","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/acrossthecurve.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/acrossthecurve.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acrossthecurve.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acrossthecurve.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=23589"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/acrossthecurve.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23589\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":23590,"href":"https:\/\/acrossthecurve.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23589\/revisions\/23590"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/acrossthecurve.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=23589"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acrossthecurve.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=23589"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/acrossthecurve.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=23589"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}