Nervous TIC

March 16th, 2009 9:12 am | by John Jansen |

I am not a maven of the TIC data and will await the Brad Setser report but unless there is some mitigating factor, this report seems pretty gloomy.

One line: Net foreign private flows were -$158 billion. Once again I do not know the technicals of this one and will await informed analysis but it seems less than festive at first glance.

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  1. 5 Responses to “Nervous TIC”

  2. By jason r on Mar 16, 2009 | Reply

    these TICS data do look awful. It is intriguing though, that despite the trail of outflows the $ was so strong over the period. does any body have any sense as to why that might be the case?

  3. By JPHouston on Mar 16, 2009 | Reply

    with the trade deficit down to $40b per month, the bar is lowered in terms of what we have to hit.

    but this was a HUGE miss and we are now “not making it” for the year. will be interesting to see next month and if this becomes a developing bad story

  4. By S on Mar 16, 2009 | Reply

    Equity markets are being walked higher for an almost certin flush..

    The TIC is worrying in view of the GS est of $2.5T to be raised…

    if yields blow out will force the fed’s hand on buying no?

  5. By anon on Mar 16, 2009 | Reply

    Crescenzi at Miller Tabek: “Foreign investors were in liquidation mode in January, selling $43 billion of long-term U.S. securities. Large amounts of sales took place in tax havens, including Caribbean banking centers and Luxembourg, somewhat reducing the implications of today’s data.

    The sales reek of hedge fund selling and quite possibly from investors who were “Madoff-ed.” News stories have documented the closing by officials of Luxembourg-based hedge funds that are said to have lost money in the Madoff scandal.

    Caribbean banking centers shed $20.9 billion of Treasuries in January, more than any other nation or nation bloc. The sale was a bit more than 10% of the center’s holdings. Luxembourg shed $10.2 billion of its Treasury holdings, second to the Caribbean banking centers. Luxembourg’s sale was also a bit more than 10% of prior holdings.

    Countries far more important to the ultimate direction of interest rates were net buyers of Treasuries in January. China purchased $12.2 billion and Japan bought $8.8 billion.”

  6. By Bman on Mar 16, 2009 | Reply

    There are a few massive domestic funds that can absorb alot of the shortfall – if there is one in the future from China – and if there is a significant increase in rates, retail will back up the truck.

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