Overnight Data Drop

January 30th, 2017 1:58 pm | by John Jansen |

Via Robert Sinche at Amherst Pierpont Securities:

JAPAN: In advance of the BOJ meeting data will be released on December IP, Household Spending and the labor market. The Bberg consensus expects another 0.3% MOM rise in IP after a 1.5% surge in November, although YOY growth would slow to 3.0%. The UR is expected to hold at 3.1% while Real Household Spending is expected at -0.9% YOY after a -1.5% YOY drop in November, which would be the 1th straight YOY decline in real spending.

AUSTRALIA: The NAB Business Confidence Index has ranged between 0 and 10 for the last 3 years, with the 5 reading for November in the center of that range. However, the NAB Business Conditions Index, also at 5, has exhibited a steady downtrend since the 9-year high of 13 reached in march, a more ominous outcome.

NEW ZEALAND: Net Migration flows have been hovering around record highs, and the December outcome will follow Net Migration of 6220 in November. New residents appears to be helping maintain demand for housing and overall growth in the economy despite the weakness in commodity prices.

EURO ZONE: The Bberg consensus expects that the UR will have held at 9.8% in December while the Advance Real GDP report for 4Q2016 will show a 0.5% QOQ rise that will keep YOY growth at 1.7%. On inflation, the consensus expects the Headline CPI will be reported up to 1.5% YOY from 1.1% in December, although the consensus expects the Core CPI to have held at 0.9% YOY.

GERMANY: The Bberg consensus expects the Unemployment will have fallen another -5K in January, which would be the 18th straight monthly decline, keeping the UR at the record low 6.0%. The consensus expects that Real Retail Sales will have rebounded 0.5% MOM after a -1.7% MOM setback in November, taking the YOY gain to 0.5% in December from 3.2% YOY the prior month.

FRANCE: the Bberg consensus expects Real GDP to be reported up 0.4% QOQ for 4Q2016, taking YOY growth to 1.1%, up from the 1.0% 2-year low in 3Q. Consumer Spending for December is expected to have posted a 0.2% MOM rise after a 0.4% rise in November, bringing the YOY rise down to 2.1% from a very solid 3.2% YOY in November. Finally, the consensus expects the Headline EU Harmonized CPI will have fallen -0.5% MOM but that would result in a YOY rise of 1.2%, up from 0.8% YOY in December.

ITALY: Despite an economy lagging its EZ peers, the Bberg consensus expects the UR slipped to 11.8% in December from 11.9% in November.

SPAIN: The Bbgerg consensus expects the EU Harmonized CPI will have jumped to 2.2% YOY for January from 1.4% in December, although the Core CPI is expected to be reported unchanged at 1.0% YOY for January.

UK: The Bberg consensus expects the recovery in UK Mortgage Approvals will have continued in December, rising to a 9-month high of 69.2K.

IRELAND: The January UR will follow a 7.2% print for December, a level that was just under half the Jan 2012 high of 15.2%.

BRAZIL: The Bberg consensus expects the (not SA) Unemployment Rate will have held at 11.9% in December, up from 9.0% in December 2015.


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