Employment Anecdotes

September 3rd, 2015 12:08 pm | by John Jansen |

Via Ian Lyngen at CRT Capital:

*** This month’s employment proxies are mixed and lightly skewed lower with 7 negative vs. 6 positive.  However, the negative data points are especially relevant, namely initial claims, ISM, ISM non-manufacturing, and ADP.  On the other hand, the positive anecdotes include the Labor Differential returning to 0.0 – highest since Jan 2008. ***

Negative:
1) Initial Claims for NFP-survey week were higher at 277k Aug vs. 255k July. Highest for an NFP-survey week since April.
2) Empire State Employment decreased to 1.8 Aug vs. 3.2 July. Average Workweek moved lower, reaching -1.8 Aug vs. +4.6 July.
3) ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment decreased to 56.0 Aug vs. 59.6 July – but still >50 and consistent with job growth.
4) ISM Manufacturing Employment decreased in Aug to 51.5 vs. 52.0 July – second consecutive decline.
5) ADP Employment Change -lower-than-expected at 190k Aug vs. 200k consensus and 177k July.
6) Liscio’s employment forecast is below consensus at +205k NFP and +199k private-NFP.  UNR seen unchanged at 5.3% vs. 5.3% consensus.
7) Historically, the September NFP (August data) release has a bias to disappoint, doing so 61% of the time for an average miss of -60k.  When the release surprises on the upside (39% of occurrences) the average is just +24k.

Positive:
1) Challenger Layoffs were lower at +2.9% YoY Aug vs. +125.4% July.  Monthly change was -64.5k vs. +60.8k July.
2) Continuing Claims for Aug NFP-survey week were lower at 2.266 mm vs. 2.269 mm June.
3) Philadelphia Fed Number of Employees increased to +5.3 Aug vs. -0.4 July. Average workweek increased as well to 8.5 Aug vs. 4.7 July.
4) Labor Differential: Jobs-Hard-to-Get minus Plentiful increased to 0.0 Aug vs. -7.5 July.
5) Chicago PMI showed the employment gauge improved to 49.1 Aug vs. 46.2 July – but still <50.
6) The September Unemployment print (August data) comes in lower-than-expected 33% of the time, higher 28% and as-expected the balance.  The lower prints have averaged -0.15% vs. higher prints that have a +0.22% norm.

Unknown:
1) NFIB employment index

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