From Merrill Lynch

September 30th, 2008 4:57 pm | by John Jansen |

A loyal reader (thanks Matt) sent along an analysis by Merrill Lynch of the better than expected confidence number released earlier today. The author makes some salient points which I highlight below:

No interest in homes

And, though consumers painted a relatively sunny picture about the outlook, they

don’t seem inclined to pull the trigger on big ticket items any time soon. Home

buying intentions collapsed to just 2.1% of those surveyed, the largest one-month

decline since August 1990. Given the tightening in credit conditions in this space it

is little wonder to us that pool of prospective buyers is getting thin, not to mention

that home prices have sagged by 20% according to the latest Case Shiller

numbers out earlier today. Moreover, folks are still not seeing real estate as a

great place to sock their investments. According to the University of Michigan

survey, only 2% of respondents think home prices are going higher.

That jalopy will do for now

Even more disturbing was that new car purchase intentions dropped to just 1.5%

of all respondents – an all-time low. This is an ominous sign for those auto sales

numbers due out tomorrow – consensus is expecting an almost unchanged print

to 13.5 million units while we see sales coming in about 1 million below that mark

and we would not be surprised to see sales dip below 12 million in the months


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  1. One Response to “From Merrill Lynch”

  2. By anon on Oct 1, 2008 | Reply

    Just to get you started today.:)

    On the first business day of the month, the European PMIs come out, and they had nothing but week news.

    Sweden – 42.3 (46.0 consensus)
    Spain – 38.3
    Ireland – 43.7
    Switzerland – 47.8 (51.0 consensus)
    Czech Republic – 46.5
    Italy – 44.4 (46.0 consensus)
    France – 43.0 (43.6 consensus)
    Germany – 47.4 (48.1 consensus)
    Eurozone – 45.0 (45.3 consensus)
    UK – 41.0 (45.0 consensus)
    Hungary – 50.3
    Denmark – 49.1

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