Overnight Data Watching

April 22nd, 2014 9:06 pm | by John Jansen |

Via Pierpont Securities’ Robert Sinche:

AUSTRALIA: CPI report for 1Q2014. While there are 3 measures, most focus is on the Trimmed Mean index, with the BBerg consensus expecting an acceleration to 2.9%, right near the 3% top on the RBA’s preferred range. The weaker AUD (down about 15% YOY versus the USD) is a big contributor to the acceleration, and it is surprising that the inflation rate did not accelerate even more.

CHINA: HSBC/Markit preliminary PMI report for April; BBerg consensus expects a slight rise to 48.3 versus a 48.0 March reading that was an 8-month low.

EURO ZONE: Report of aggregate EZ Government Debt as a % of GDP for 2013; in 2012 the ratio rose above 90% (90.6%) for the first time, a key debt/GDP level identified in the work by Rogoff/Reinhart (although some doubt about that analysis based on recent reviews). On a more current measure, the preliminary readings of the Markit PMIs for Manufacturing, Services and the Composite. The BBerg consensus expects the Composite PMI to slip to 53.0 from 53.1 in March; the Composite PMI has been above 50 for 9 consecutive months through March.

GERMANY: All three preliminary PMIs for April, with a key focus on the Composite PMI that fell to 54.3 in March, a 5-month low; BBerg consensus for another slight decline to 54.0 in April.

FRANCE: All three preliminary PMIs for April, with a key focus on the Composite PMI that rose to 51.8 in March, the first reading above 50 since February 2012.

UK: The CBI (Confederation of British Industry) reports its monthly readings on Orders, Sales, Selling Prices and Business Optimism, with BBerg consensus estimates looking for slight improvement from already-solid readings for March; GBP/USD is trading around its strongest level since November 2009.

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