Surprise

February 25th, 2014 5:53 am | by John Jansen |

The Citi economic surprise index continues to fall and the $64K question remains whether or not the economic weakness is real or weather related.

Via Bloomberg:

The dollar fell against most of its major peers as Citigroup’s U.S. Surprise Index, which shows if data beat or fell short of economists’ forecasts, fell to minus 11.8 yesterday, the lowest since July 15. The measure rose to 72.7 in January, the most since February 2012, before severe winter weather began weighing on economic data.

“The Surprise Index is continuing to plummet and I guess that is going to keep the dollar probably on the back foot until there is some degree of reversal in that sentiment,” said Jeremy Stretch, head of currency strategy at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce in London. “There’s obviously still a lot of debate about how much is weather impacted or not, but the slide in the Surprise Index is still relevant.”

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