History Lesson

November 29th, 2009 10:46 pm | by John Jansen |

I begin my new work enterprise at TD securities in about nine hours. I want to thank everyone for the warm and gracious response to the news.

I want to reiterate that the future of the blog is undetermined as I write this.

If you desire to establish a professional relationship and bask in my dulcet tones via telephone, please contact me .

If you have access to Bloomberg I will appear on that system early this week and you can contact me via that system.

And here is a link to an article by ubiquitous and prolific UK historian Niall Ferguson who pens a penetrating piece in the current issue of Newsweek on the prospects of a mountain of debt leading to the decline and fall of the American Empire.

As I reconnect with the world of government bonds sales, he securely makes the point that there will be no paucity of product.

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  1. 28 Responses to “History Lesson”

  2. By jill on Nov 30, 2009 | Reply

    A little off topic but maybe you can answer this question:

    Why do 30-year Dollar Swaps yield less than 30-year Dollar Treasury Bonds?

    Best of luck at TD Securities!

  3. By Gemfinder on Nov 30, 2009 | Reply

    Ferguson’s article is OK, but confuses effect with cause.

    Imperial decline begins not with a debt explosion, but with a personal income growth gap vs rivals. Debt is only the second step.

    To truly manage or stabilize US decline, we would attack the root cause: low income growth vs rivals.

    Convincing hawks of this fact would unite the country in a useful direction, one that benefits the middle class. Guns are bought with tax dollars, not tough talk.

  4. By zjin on Nov 30, 2009 | Reply

    Will you keep this space up even if you do not have lots of time updating this blog?

    There are so much insights and discussions here that I hope that you can let this blog stay here for a while.

    Good luck on your new career.

  5. By Hawaii54 on Nov 30, 2009 | Reply

    Thank you very much for your insights and erudition this past year. You were always one of the first blogs I checked in the morning. Best of luck in your new/old endeavor. We will miss you.

  6. By frank on Nov 30, 2009 | Reply

    Best of luck John. Thank you for the market commentary and insight.

  7. By BL on Dec 1, 2009 | Reply

    It would be interesting if you could get on the Bloomberg podcast with Tom Keane and talk about the bond market on occasion. I think that topic gets less coverage than deserved.


  8. By Paula Hatfield on Dec 1, 2009 | Reply

    Could you recommend a blog that is similar to Across the Curve?

  9. By YT on Dec 1, 2009 | Reply

    Best of luck JJJ! And thanks for all the posting in the past. Yours and Setser’s FtM were the best.

  10. By Tollsforthee on Dec 1, 2009 | Reply

    Wow, I’m sad to see you’re leaving. You were one of only two authors I signed up to follow on Seeking Alpha.

    Hopefully you put your wit, wisdom, and timely observations on display SOMEWHERE!

  11. By cosmo on Dec 2, 2009 | Reply

    While still suffering from withdrawl symptoms I realize yours was the best blog on the internet. Best of luck at TD.

  12. By bond noob on Dec 3, 2009 | Reply

    So John not blogging is obviously a loss for many of us. However, since this blog is quite popular with bond traders/sales-persons, perhaps John could ask one of the other distinguished readers to share their insights from time to time?

  13. By Bman on Dec 3, 2009 | Reply

    Foreign investors selling long-end.

  14. By N N on Dec 3, 2009 | Reply

    I really enjoyed the notes from the various banks. Perhaps you can still post those??

  15. By Bob on Dec 3, 2009 | Reply

    Anyone have comments about the rumors Japan will sell US Treasuries?

  16. By Griff on Dec 7, 2009 | Reply

    TD’s gain is our collective loss. As many others have noted, you will certainly be missed. Best of luck.

  17. By dd on Dec 7, 2009 | Reply

    Good luck. You will be much missed.

  18. By Michael on Dec 9, 2009 | Reply

    I said it before, and I am going to say it again: What we need in this country is vigorous economic growth. If other countries can grow at 10% a year, so can we! It is all a matter of putting in place the right policies and tax incentives.

    This is the only way out of this mess that we are in. Strong growth reduces unemployment. This is a prerequisite for homeowners to have a paycheck to pay the mortgage, so that real estate stabilizes and the banking crisis abates.

    It will also increase company profits and help the stock market move higher to help people’s retirement plans catch up. Why don’t we do it? Wish I knew. All the focus has been on irrelevant issues and not on this important one. Hopefully it will be addressed soon.

    By the way, with all the volatility in the stock market, it is important to know when to get in and when to get out. Timing signals can help an investor enhance their investment returns.

    Consider http://invetrics.com

    Its daily DJIA index trading signal is up a respectable 77% for the year (as of December 2, 2009) and it is free of charge for individual investors.

  19. By byzantine_ruins on Dec 9, 2009 | Reply

    Best of luck! With your market insight, I know you’ll be an asset to your new firm! I hope to keep hearing from you but as much as I enjoy reading your posts, I’d rather know you were doing something in the world than spectating, however entertaining the commentary.

  20. By Jim Smyth on Dec 11, 2009 | Reply


    Delighted to hear that you will be back in the saddle. I have read you periodically, but not consistently. We moved to Hyde Park, NY and the move and the renovations took much of my time. What I read I liked very much. I wish you the best of luck. If you see any one from the old CRT days, please give them my best.


  21. By Eric Weiss on Dec 14, 2009 | Reply

    Great work clearly runs in your family. Good luck in your next adventure, John. And my best to the amazing Jansens, who don’t let the bastards get them down.

  22. By John Jansen on Dec 15, 2009 | Reply


    Nice to have met you and I wish you all the best

  23. By CCG on Dec 17, 2009 | Reply

    Congratulations, and I hope TD will carve out a daily chunk of time for you to continue this blog, as it renders an immense public service.

  24. By Indian Investor on Feb 6, 2010 | Reply

    You forgot to thank Dr. Brad Setser, formerly at the council on foreign relations. He actively quoted from and linked to your blog.

  25. By John Jansen on Feb 15, 2010 | Reply

    I did fail to thank him but wrote to him personally and apologized. He is a gentleman and was instrumental in the success of the blog.

  26. By ejsmith on Mar 26, 2010 | Reply

    I miss your blog Mr. Jansen. I hope things are going well in your new endeavor. Is anyone else doing something similar to what you were trying to accomplish with this blog?

    If you have a little time, I would love to hear your opinion of the current state of affairs in the Treasury market.

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