Monday and Weekly Preview Via UBS
October 26th, 2009 12:35 am | by John Jansen |Monday preview: Dallas Fed manufacturing survey
Only the Dallas Fed’s manufacturing survey will be released. The current activity indexes in the NY and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing surveys both indicated continued increase in manufacturing in October, although the NY measure surged, while the Philadelphia measure slipped slightly.
The week ahead: Q3 GDP +3.5%est. Durables and new home sales up. Confidence measures mixed.
We estimate Q3 real GDP rose 3.5% at an annual rate (cons 3.2%). The composition appears strong, with final sales up 3.1% (est) and inventories liquidated at almost the pace of Q2. Inventories could add more significantly to growth later. We forecast solid gains in September in durable goods orders (UBSe & cons 1.0% after -2.6%) and new home sales (UBSe & cons 440k, after 429k) —before the expiration of the first-time homebuyer tax credit. S&P/CS home price measures probably rose in August (UBSe 0.7%m/m). Home vacancy data for Q3 will give a sense of the remaining downward pressure on prices from inventories. Confidence measures will likely be mixed, with the Conference Board index slipping from its September level (UBSe 51.5, cons 53.5, after 53.1) but the Michigan index reversing some of its early-October decline (UBSe 72.5, cons 70.0, after 69.4).
