Via Bloomberg: Exports From China Plunge
May 11th, 2009 11:38 pm | by John Jansen |May 12 (Bloomberg) — China’s export slump worsened in April, making it harder for the government to revive the world’s third-biggest economy.
Overseas sales declined 22.6 percent to $91.94 billion from a year earlier, the official Xinhua News Agency said. Imports fell 23 percent.
The collapse of world trade has cost millions of jobs in China and dragged growth to its weakest pace since at least 1999. Surging lending and a 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus package are yet to establish solid foundations for an economic recovery, the central bank said last week.
“The export outlook remains highly uncertain and downbeat,” said Tao Dong, chief Asia economist at Credit Suisse in Hong Kong. China will still be the first major economy to “crawl out of recession” as lending and stimulus spending fuel growth, he added.
The yuan was little changed after the report, trading at 6.8252 per dollar as of 10:19 a.m. in Shanghai, compared with 6.8230 yesterday.
April’s export decline compared with March’s 17.1 percent slump. The median forecast of 19 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 15.3 percent drop.
Seasonally-adjusted, exports rose 6.9 percent from the previous month and imports climbed 15.1 percent, Xinhua reported.
Smaller Trade Surplus
The trade surplus narrowed to about $12.9 billion, a number calculated by subtracting the surplus through March from a four- month figure announced today. That compared with $18.56 billion in March and $16.67 billion a year earlier.
Shanghai International Port Group Co., the operator of China’s busiest container harbor, said profit tumbled in the first quarter as it moved 14.5 percent fewer containers .
China’s biggest trade fair, in the southern city of Guangzhou, said this month that the value of export orders at the event fell 16.9 percent to $26.23 billion from six months earlier.
China’s economic expansion weakened to 6.1 percent in the first quarter, the slowest pace since at least 1999. The International Monetary Fund predicts that the global economy will contract 1.3 percent this year with world trade declining 11 percent.
To contact the reporters on this story: Kevin Hamlin in Beijing at khamlin@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: May 11, 2009 22:36 EDT
8 Responses to “Via Bloomberg: Exports From China Plunge”
By anon on May 12, 2009 | Reply
“China’s exports sink, but factory investment rises- AP”
nobody wants to buy chinese exports, yet china continues to develop capacity at a record rate. this can’t end well.
By M on May 12, 2009 | Reply
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20603037&sid=akrv15syzPy0
Comment?
By John Jansen on May 12, 2009 | Reply
I would need to think a little more about that but at first blush purchasing Treasury debt has been a failure.
They have promised to buy $ 1.25 trillion mortgages and that seems to be working. in fact is working. So why not just spend your bullets there.
By ejsmith on May 12, 2009 | Reply
am I alone in thinking that contemplating expanding the QE plan is completely insane?
It might take a while, but I’m pretty sure the millions of unemployed are going to grasp the roots of the return of $4.00 a gallon gasoline.
Prepare to endure more idiotic hearings in Congress over “excessive” speculation. Who knows, maybe we’ll see price controls again as well – the current administration seems completely at ease with dictating what the correct price is for everything.
This reckless monetary expansion is going to drive a stake right through what’s left of the free markets.
Sorry, please excuse the rant.
By John Jansen on May 12, 2009 | Reply
EJ,
In the short run and I guess the medium term it will be hard to get inflation with unemployment spiking into double digits and capacity utilization at all time lows.
By ejsmith on May 12, 2009 | Reply
What worries me is that the consensus believes inflation is something that will definitely be a problem in “two or three” years. I really have a hard time believing the monster moves in commodities over the past couple of weeks coupled with the 30 yr. getting smoked is some type of head fake. With the truly massive amount of money circulating out there, it’s possible that simply reallocating for an inflationary environment could trigger the phenomenon.
All the dollars/euros/yen currently being created are going to head somewhere, the banks are going to use it for something. Who knows, it might pour into emerging markets?
Anyway, the QE effect on treasuries seems to have faded very quickly. Exponentially, expanding the amount of money to purchase government securities seems like the height of folly. Eventually it will blow up in our faces.
By ejsmith on May 12, 2009 | Reply
sorry – second to last sentence should read Exponentially expanding. not exponentially, expanding.
By Andrew on May 12, 2009 | Reply
John, are you sure about that? Inflation will start to show up end of 09, wait for it wait for it