Overnight Data Preview

May 31st, 2016 12:47 pm | by John Jansen |

Via Robert Sinche at Amherst Pierpont Securities:

CHINA: The Bberg consensus expects the official PMI to inch down to 50.0 in May from 50.1 in April while the Non-Manufacturing PMI for May will follow a solid 53.5 reading in April. The consensus expects the Caixin/Markit manufacturing PMI to have slipped to 49.2 from 49.4 in April.

S. KOREA: The May Manufacturing PMI will follow a 50.0 reading in April that was the strongest since December. The consensus also expects the Headline CPI will have slipped to 0.9% YOY in May from 1.0% while the Core CPI eased to 1.6% YOY from 1.8% in April.

AUSTRALIA: the Bberg consensus expects that 1Q Real GDP growth will slow modestly to 2.8% YOY from a solid 3.0% YOY in 4Q2015 while the May AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index for May will follow a strong 53.4 in April.

INDIA: The May Manufacturing PMI will follow a 50.5 reading in April, which was the weakest reading of 2016 so far.

INDONESIA: the Manufacturing PMI jumped to 50.9 in April, the strongest since June 2014, continuing a rapid recovery underway during 2016.

TAIWAN: the May Manufacturing PMI will follow a small setback to 49.7 in April, although the average for the first 4 months of 2016 was 50.2, a solid improvement from a 2H2015 average of 48.2.

JAPAN: the final May Manufacturing PMI will likely be close to the disappointing 47.6 preliminary reading. Company Sales and Profits for 1Q2016 are likely to remain lower on a YOY basis as the economy softened and the JPY strengthened. IT IS EXPECTED THAT PM ABE WILL ANNOUNCED A DELAY IN THE NEXT CONSUMPTION TAX HIKE SET FOR APRIL 2017.

RUSSIA: The Bberg consensus expects the Manufacturing PMI to have rebounded to 48.5 in May from 48.0 in April.

EURO ZONE: The BBerg consensus expects final Manufacturing PMIs to be confirmed for the Euro Zone (51.5 vs. 51.7 in April), Germany (52.4 vs. 51.8 in April) and France (48.3 vs. 48.0 in April).

SPAIN: The Bberg consensus expects the Manufacturing PMI will slip to 52.5 in May from 53.5 in April.

ITALY: The Bberg consensus expects the Manufacturing PMI will show a continued weakening of the Manufacturing PMI, will a consensus at 53.0 in May from 53.9 in April.

SWEDEN: The Bberg consensus expects the Manufacturing PMI will slip to 53.8 in May from a very strong 54.0 in April.

SWITZERLAND: The Bberg consensus expects the Manufacturing PMI will slip to 54.0 in May from a surprisingly solid 54.7 in April and Real GDP growth to have rebounded to 0.9% YOY in 1Q from a 6-year low of 0.4% YOY in 4Q2015.

UK: The Bberg consensus expects the May Manufacturing PMI to have rebounded slightly to 49.6 from 49.2 in April, but would be the 2nd consecutive reading below 50 for the first time since early 2013.

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