Weekend Data Preview

April 29th, 2016 1:16 pm | by John Jansen |

Via Robert Sinche at Amherst Pierpont Securities:

CHINA: The Bberg consensus expects the official Manufacturing PMI will have inched up to 50.3 in April from 50.2 in March, a modest sign that growth is stabilizing, while there is no consensus estimate for the Non-Manufacturing PMI, which rebounded to 53.8 in March.

AUSTRALIA: The AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index for April will follow an unsustainably strong 58.1 reading in March. The Melbourne Institute of Inflation (official data is quarterly) was down to 1.7% in March. Finally, the NAB Business Conditions Index for April will follow a surprising surge to an 8-year high in March – a sign of a China recovery?

S. KOREA: The April Manufacturing PMI will follow a 49.5 reading in March that was the 3rd consecutive reading below 50. The Bberg consensus expects that April Exports will have fallen -10.3% YOY, worse than the -8.1% YOY drop in March, suggesting that the relative strength of the KRW has been hurting competiveness.

INDIA: The Manufacturing PMI rebounded to 52.4 in March, the strongest since last July, as the impact of the New Year holiday across Asia faded and signs of a general growth pickup broadened.

TAIWAN: The April Manufacturing PMI will follow a rebound to 51.1 in March after having fallen below 50 in February.

JAPAN: The final Manufacturing PMI will follow the preliminary 48.0 reported last week, a clear disappointment across the region.

EURO ZONE: The Bberg consensus expects the final Manufacturing PMIs to be confirmed for the Euro Zone (51.5), Germany (51.9) and France (disappointing at 48.3).

SPAIN: The Bberg consensus expects the April Manufacturing PMI to slip slightly to 53.0 from 53.4 in March.

ITALY: The Bberg consensus expects the April Manufacturing PMI to slip to 53.0 from 53.5 in March.

SWEDEN: The Bberg consensus expects the April Manufacturing PMI to slip slightly to 53.0 from 53.3 in March. It seems the magic number is 53!

SWITZERLAND: The Bberg consensus expects the April Manufacturing PMI to slip to 52.9 from 53.4 in March as the strong CHF remains a consistent concern for producers.

Steve Stanley noted that the March data showed that consumption softened late in 1Q but income growth accelerated. After adjustment for inflation, the gap between real income and spending did widen (higher savings), leaving added potential for spending improvement during the months ahead; spending had tracked wage & salary income through mid 2014, but higher savings has widened the gap over the last two years.

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