Overnight Data Preview

February 29th, 2016 1:00 pm | by John Jansen |

Via Robert Sinche at Amherst Pierpont Securities:

AUSTRALIA: As it has since last May, the RBA is expected to hold its Cash rate at 2.0%, according to the Bberg consensus. The AiG Performance of Manufacturing (PMI-type) Index was 51.5 in January, 7th consecutive month above 50, in contrast to most developed countries, as the weak AUD over recent years supporting domestic manufacturers.

CHINA: The Bberg consensus expects the Official Manufacturing PMI to hold at 49.4 while the Caixin/Markit Manufacturing PMI to hold at 48.4. The official Non-Manufacturing PMI, increasingly important given the focus on domestic demand, slipped to 53.5 in January, a 3-month low.

S. KOREA: After falling -18.8% YOY, the Bberg consensus expects Exports for February to have fallen -16.6% YOY, which would be the 14th consecutive YOY decline.

INDIA: The Manufacturing PMI rebounded sharply to 51.1 in January from 49.1 in December; while encouraging, production growth has been weak/declining in most countries.

JAPAN: The February Manufacturing PMI is likely to be confirmed at 50.2. The Bberg consensus expects the January Employment data to show the UR held at 3.3% and the Jobs-to-Applicant Ratio to hold at a very strong 1.27.

RUSSIA: The Bberg consensus expects the Manufacturing PMI to slip back only to 49.5 from 49.8.

EURO ZONE: The Bberg consensus expects the UR to have held at 10.4% in January and the February Manufacturing PMI to be confirmed at 51.0.

GERMANY: The Bberg consensus expects February Unemployment to have fallen another -10K, continuing a trend of declines over the last 6 months, and the Manufacturing PMI to be confirmed at 50.2.

ITALY: The Bberg consensus expects the Manufacturing PMI to slide to 52.3 in February from 53.2 while the UR is reported at 11.4% for January, unchanged from December.

SPAIN: The Bberg consensus expects the Manufacturing PMI to slide to 54.5 in February from 55.4, which marked a solid 2.4 point jump from December.

UK: The Bberg consensus expects the Manufacturing PMI to slide to 52.3 in February from 52.9 in January.

SWEDEN: The economy remains very strong, with the Bberg consensus expecting a still-strong 55.0 reading for the Manufacturing PMI from 55.5 in January.

BRAZIL: The Manufacturing PMI was 47.4 in January, the 12th consecutive month below 50.

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