This Bloomberg story reports that hedge funds hold their largest positions long the 10 year note contract since April 2013. That is somewhat ominous and worrisome (if you are one of the aforementioned longs) as it was in May 2013 that the first cracks appeared and the taper tantrum began and ended with a 3 percent 10 year around Labor Day 2013 (September if you are not in the States).
Hedge funds are the most bullish on Treasury benchmark 10-year notes in two years, as U.S. government securities head for a second straight monthly gain.
Large speculators including hedge funds boosted their positions in Treasury 10-year futures to a net 84,659 contracts as of Feb. 23, according to the latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. It’s the highest level since April 2013.
Treasuries have returned 2.9 percent this year, based on the Bloomberg World Bond Indexes, as tumbling stock and oil prices drove demand for the safest assets. Traders see about a 50 percent chance the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in 2016. Finance officials from the biggest economies committed their governments to doing more to boost global growth at a Group-of-20 meeting.
“The global economic situation is not supportive for the Fed to continue to raise the rate,” said Park Sungjin, the head of principal investment in Seoul at Mirae Asset Securities Co., which oversees $6.44 billion. “That makes the Treasury market bullish.” Park said he’s investing in U.S. money-market securities and real estate.
The benchmark Treasury 10-year note yield fell two basis points to 1.75 percent as of 11:04 a.m. in Tokyo, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader data. The price of the 1.625 percent security due in February 2026 rose 5/32, or $1.56 per $1,000 face amount, to 98 29/32.
Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures gave up an initial gain of 0.2 percent and were little changed.
The odds the Fed will follow its December rate increase with another in 2016 are about 53 percent, futures prices compiled by Bloomberg indicate. The figure had dropped from 93 percent at the start of the year.
“We will use fiscal policy flexibly to strengthen growth, job creation and confidence,” officials from the G-20 said following a meeting last week.