Longest overnight preview ever

November 30th, 2015 12:27 pm | by John Jansen |

Via Robert Sinche at Amherst Pierpont Securities:

All 27 analysts in the Bloomberg consensus expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to hold its policy rate at 2.0% while all 42 analysts surveyed expect the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to hold its Repo Rate at 6.75%.

AUSTRALIA: The November AiG Manufacturing Index follows a 50.2 reading in October which was the 4thconsecutive reading above 50.

CHINA: The BBerg consensus expects the Markit Manufacturing PMI to hold at 48.3 in November for the 2nd month, up from the cycle low of 47.2 in September. The BBerg consensus also expects the official Manufacturing PMI to hold at 49.8, just above the recent low of 49.7 in August. Perhaps more important will be the Markit Composite PMI, which jumped to 49.9 in October from a very low reading of 48.0 in September.

S. KOREA: The Manufacturing PMI was at 49.1 in October, near a neutral reading but the 8th consecutive month below 50. Exports have fallen every month of 2015 from the year-earlier level although the BBerg consensus expects “only” a -9.0% YOY drop in November after a -15.9% YOY drop in October.

INDIA: While GDP growth was solid in 3Q2015 (+7.4% YOY) the Manufacturing sector has been slowing, with the 50.7 Manufacturing PMI reported for October the lowest since October 2013.

JAPAN: The final Manufacturing PMI report for November is likely to confirm the surprisingly 52.8 reading in the preliminary November report. Also of interest will be 3Q data on Company Sales and Profits to see if the positive YOY sales trend (+1.1% in 2Q) persisted.

RUSSIA: After 10 months below 50, the Manufacturing PMI surprisingly jumped above 50 (50.2) in October; the BBerg consensus expects a 50.0 print for November.

EURO ZONE: The BBerg consensus expects the Manufacturing PMI to be confirmed at the preliminary 52.8 reading for November while the UR is expected to have held at 10.8% in October.

GERMANY: The BBerg consensus expects the level of Unemployment to fall another -5K in November while the UR holds at a record low 6.4% for the 8th straight month; the consensus expects the Manufacturing PMI to be confirmed at 52.6.

ITALY: The BBerg consensus expects the UR to have fallen to 11.7% in October, which would be a 34-month low while the Manufacturing PMI for November is expected to inch up to 54.2, solid expansion of the manufacturing sector.

SPAIN: The BBerg consensus expects the Manufacturing PMI to rebound to 51.7 in November which would be the 24th consecutive reading above 50.

SWEDEN: The BBerg consensus expects the Manufacturing PMI to inch up to 54.0 from 53.5, the 31ststraight month of expansion, yet the Riksbank thinks additional easing might be needed. Really?

UK: After a very surprising 3.7 point jump to 55.5 in October, the BBerg consensus expects the Manufacturing PMI to slip to 53.6 in November.

BRAZIL: The BBerg consensus expects 3Q2015 Real GDP to have fallen -4.2% YOY, a severe drop that would be below the trough during the global crisis (-2.6% YOY) and the record low since consistent GDP data began in 1996 as the economic crisis worsens.

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