Weekend Data Preview

August 29th, 2015 4:56 pm | by John Jansen |

Via Robert Sinche at Amherst Pierpont Securities:

AUSTRALIA: The Private measure of CPI inflation for August, from TD Securities, will follow at 1.6% YOY rise in July that has been aided by the rising cost of imports as the AUD has fallen sharply, more than 20% versus last year at this time. The BBerg consensus expects Private Sector Credit growth to hold at 5.9% YOY, a growth pace to be envied by most developed countries.

NEW ZEALAND: The ANZ Survey of Business Optimism has plunged this year, having fallen from 30.4 at yearend 2014 to -15.2 in July, lowest since April 2009.

S. KOREA: Given a difficult comparison to July 2014, the BBerg consensus projects Industrial Production to have fallen -1.6% YOY in July following a rare increase of 1.2% YOY in June. Annual growth in IP has been negative in 3 of the last 5 months, and the weakening of the CNY will not aid S. Korean competitiveness and production.

INDIA: Unlike Brazil and Russia, the India remains a solid “BRIC”, with the BBerg consensus expecting 2Q real GDP to have increased 7.4% YOY, down almost slightly from 7.5% YOY in 1Q.

JAPAN: The BBerg consensus projects that Industrial Production rose only 0.8% YOY in July, down from +2.3% YOY in June; IP has fallen on a YOY basis for 7 of the last 9 months.

EURO ZONE: The BBerg consensus expects 0.1pp declines in both the Headline CPI (to 0.1% YOY) and the core CPI (to 0.9% YOY) in the preliminary reports for August inflation.

GERMANY: The BBerg consensus expects Real Retail Sales to have increased “only” 1.7% YOY in July following an outsized +5.1% YOY gain in June; sales gains have accelerated sharply as energy costs have come down.

ITALY: The BBerg consensus expects the EU Harmonized CPI YOY gain to slip to 0.2% in August from 0.3% in July, consistent with the slowing reported today for Germany and Spain.

SPAIN: Mortgage Lending data for June are likely to show continued double-digit gains from a year earlier, although the level of activity remains very depressed compared to the boom.

SWITZERLAND: Surprisingly the BBerg consensus expects the KOF Leading Indicator to increase to 100.3 in August, which would be the strongest since April 2014, despite the excessively strong CHF.

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