Via CRT Capital:
Nonetheless, the employment report will be the most compelling event of the week, although arguably second to Thursday’s early close. For historical context, the July release of June’s data tends to be a disappointing one. Since 1997, the July release has come in below consensus 71% of occurrences for an average miss of -70k vs. surprising on the upside just 29% of the time with a +22k norm. In addition, the unemployment rate has been higher than anticipated 41% of the time for an average of +0.16% vs. lower just 18% of occurrences with a -0.15% norm.