UBS Previews Friday Data
November 6th, 2009 2:09 am | by John Jansen |Preview: Payrolls est -150k, u rate 9.9%, earnings +0.2%
(1) The employment report will probably show less weakness in October net hiring, with payrolls falling more slowly (UBSe: -150k, cons: -175k, after -263k in Sep) but a slight rise in the unemployment rate (to 9.9% from 9.8%). Our -150,000 forecast for payrolls in October compares with average declines of 256,000 per month in Q3, -428,000 in Q2, and -691,000 in Q1. Earlier-reported October labor market information has been mixed, with lower weekly jobless claims but a higher fraction of the public saying jobs are “hard to get”. (2) We forecast a 0.2%m/m (cons: 0.1%) increase in average hourly earnings and no change in the workweek (33.0 hours, cons: 33.1). (3) Data on wholesale inventories (Sep) (cons: -1.0%, after -1.3%) and consumer credit (Sep) will also be released (UBSe: -$8.0 bil, cons: -$10.0B, after -$12.0B in Aug). (4) Fed officials Evans (9:45am) and Duke (3pm) are scheduled to speak, although immediately after FOMC meetings officials generally do not focus on the economic outlook or near-term policy.
