Archive for December, 2016

Index Extension at Month End

Tuesday, December 27th, 2016

Via a fully paid up subscriber: Bloomberg Barclays Updates Index Duration Changes for Jan. 1 14:55 Bloomberg Barclays estimated the following duration extensions for Jan. 1 as of Dec. 23 (comparisons are to Dec. 16 ests.): • U.S. Treasury: 0.07yrs vs 0.08yrs • U.S. Agency: 0.13yrs, unchanged • U.S. Credit: 0.08yrs vs 0.07yrs • U.S. Govt/Credit: ...

Consumer Confidence at Best Levels Since 2001

Tuesday, December 27th, 2016

Via Stephen Stanley at Amherst Pierpont Securities: The Conference Board measure of consumer confidence continued the trend of surging household attitudes since the election.  The overall index jumped by more than 4 points on top of an upwardly-revised 8½-point rise in November.  The 113.7 reading was the highest since 2001 (even ...

Some Corporate Bond Stuff

Tuesday, December 27th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: IG CREDIT: Spreads Remain at the Tightest Levels of 2016 2016-12-27 10:51:25.235 GMT By Robert Elson (Bloomberg) -- Secondary IG trading ended with a Trace count of $2.2b Friday vs $8.6b Thursday, $12.6b the previous Friday. Trading volume less than on 98% of trading days since Dec. 2005 * 10-DMA $13.2b; 19-Friday moving avg $11.4b * 144a ...

FX

Tuesday, December 27th, 2016

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman: Markets Becalmed in Wait-and-See Mode US dollar is little changed from the end of last week Equity markets are narrowly mixed Bond markets are mostly softer, though German bunds seem to be attracting some safe haven flows Most of the major currencies are little ...

Should Large Banks Hold More Capital

Tuesday, December 27th, 2016

Via WSJ: Trump’s Financial Deregulation Might Be Bad News for Banks After All Some influential people in the president-elect’s sphere say big lenders should maintain higher capital in return for scaling back some regulations By Adam Creighton and Ryan Tracy Updated Dec. 26, 2016 4:17 p.m. ET   WASHINGTON—Bank stocks have surged since the election ...

Gaping Hole in Balance Sheet

Tuesday, December 27th, 2016

Via WSJ: By Deborah Ball Updated Dec. 27, 2016 5:03 a.m. ET   MILAN—Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA has a far bigger hole in its balance sheet than previously calculated, according to the European Central Bank, significantly raising the amount the Italian government has to deploy to rescue the troubled ...

China Gain

Monday, December 26th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: China Industrial Profits Increase as Production, Prices Recover Bloomberg News December 26, 2016, 8:44 PM EST Industrial profits rose 14.5% last month to 774.6 billion yuan Rise comes amid rebound in factory inflation, coal price gains Profits at industrial firms in China accelerated last month as prices of products such as ...

Mighty Greenback Causes Some Pain

Monday, December 26th, 2016

Via WSJ: By Andrew Tangel and Josh Zumbrun Dec. 26, 2016 9:00 a.m. ET 1 COMMENTS A strengthening dollar is re-emerging as a threat to U.S. manufacturers, endangering the profits of some companies and complicating President-elect Donald Trump’s drive to boost factory employment. The U.S. currency, which has strongly appreciated over the past ...

Year End Flows

Thursday, December 22nd, 2016

This is an interesting note via my friend and former colleague Steve Liddy which reports on the musings of a Wells Fargo analyst on year end flows.   Pensions May See ‘Significant’ Quarter-End Rebalancing: Wells 15:23 U.S. defined-benefit pension funds may need to add about $20b in bonds versus around $32b outflows from ...

Calpers to Reduce Equity Exposure

Tuesday, December 20th, 2016

Via Barron's: December 20, 2016, 2:00 P.M. ET Calpers To Cut Equity Investments Over Next 2 Years By Johanna Bennett As public pension plans struggle to meet investment goals, California’s biggest public employee pension system says its plans to cut global equity exposure by five percentage points over the next two years. Reuters ...