Archive for December, 2016

FOMC Rotation: Non Economists Join the Mix

Thursday, December 29th, 2016

Via WSJ: New Fed Voters Bring Wide Range of Experience to Rate-Setting Panel First-time FOMC voters include a former university president and a onetime gubernatorial candidate By Michael S. Derby and Shayndi Raice Updated Dec. 28, 2016 3:47 p.m. ET   Three of the four officials who gain votes next year on the Federal Reserve’s ...

Money Market Pain in China

Thursday, December 29th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: China’s Money Market Pain Is About to Get Worse Bloomberg News December 28, 2016, 11:00 AM EST December 29, 2016, 4:53 AM EST Benchmark repo rate to rise further in first quarter: survey Chinese bonds are set for worst month in at least a decade China’s money-market liquidity squeeze is ...

Relatively Low Hanging Fruit

Thursday, December 29th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: Money Market Reform Creates Arbitrage for Short-Term Investors by Sally Bakewell December 29, 2016, 5:00 AM EST Bond managers can earn extra half percentage point interest Eurodollar futures trim risk in commercial paper trade Money market reform has a silver lining for some investors. Bond managers can earn more than half a percentage ...

Some Corporate Bond Stuff

Thursday, December 29th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: IG CREDIT: Lowest Volume Wednesday in a Year 2016-12-29 10:53:07.330 GMT By Robert Elson (Bloomberg) -- Secondary IG trading ended with a Trace count of $4.8b vs $5.7b Tuesday, $11.5b last Wednesday. It was the lowest volume Wednesday session since $3.4b 12/30/2015. * 10-DMA $10.7b vs its recent high of $18.7b as of Nov. 22; 10-Wednesday ...

FX

Thursday, December 29th, 2016

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman: Dollar, Equities, and Yields Fall Thin holiday markets see several recent trends reverse News stream is light and moves seem to be more about position adjustments rather than the emergence of new drivers US trade and inventory data will impact Q4 GDP forecasts China ...

Ultra Long Bonds and Treasury Curve

Wednesday, December 28th, 2016

Great article via Bloomberg: Yield Curve Suggests Sales of Ultra-Long U.S. Bonds Are Unlikely by Liz McCormick and Robert Gee December 27, 2016, 5:00 AM EST Positive convexity enticement not seen as enough for investors Each basis point increase costs more than for 30-year debt   The likely absence of a dip in the tail-end of the ...

Corporate Pipeline

Wednesday, December 28th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: IG CREDIT PIPELINE: ACAFP Deal Among Those Expected Next Week 2016-12-28 10:11:37.628 GMT By Robert Elson (Bloomberg) -- Credit Agricole S.A. (ACAFP) Baa2/BBB+, in mandate, said it would launch in the near future a 5Y and/or 10Y senior non-Pfd self-led transaction. * Names That Historically Issue in First Days of January * January Issuance Again Expected ...

Deja Vu All Over Again

Wednesday, December 28th, 2016

House flipping has made a comeback.   Via the WSJ: By Kirsten Grind and Peter Rudegeair Dec. 28, 2016 5:30 a.m. ET 0 COMMENTS This is a great time to be in the house-flipping business. The number of investors who flipped a house in the first nine months of 2016 reached the highest level since 2007. About ...

Early Corporate Bond Stuff

Wednesday, December 28th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: IG CREDIT: Very Short Issues Led Low Volume Trading Session 2016-12-28 10:36:40.869 GMT By Robert Elson (Bloomberg) -- Secondary IG trading ended with a Trace count of $5.7b vs $2.2b Friday, $13.4b the previous Tuesday. 10- DMA $12.1b; 10-Tuesday moving avg $17b. * 144a trading added $312m of IG volume vs $229m Friday, $1.6b last Tuesday * ...

Crowded Trades

Tuesday, December 27th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: UBS: Here Are the Most Crowded Stocks in the World Right Now Popularity has its pitfalls. by Julie Verhage December 27, 2016, 8:27 AM EST If you have Amazon.com Inc., Microsoft Corp. or Alphabet Inc. in your portfolio, you're in good company. Analysts at UBS Group AG have examined the equity holdings of actively managed funds ...