Archive for May, 2016

Swedish Bubble

Monday, May 30th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: Biggest mortgage bank warns house prices could start falling Amanda Billner May 30, 2016 — 12:01 AM EDT In Sweden’s capital, it’s so difficult to find a place to live that even Spotify is complaining. A protracted period of negative interest rates, coupled with a chronic housing shortage, has pushed property prices ...

Abe to Postpone Japan Tax Hike

Monday, May 30th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: Abe Set to Postpone Sales Tax Hike, Ruling Party Officials Say Isabel Reynolds IsabelRTokyo Takashi Hirokawa May 29, 2016 — 11:51 PM EDT   Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe wants to put off a planned sales tax increase for 2 1/2 years, two ruling Liberal Democratic Party officials said Monday, as Abe prepares to end ...

Hard Times For the Rentier Class

Sunday, May 29th, 2016

This story reads as though it was published in The Onion rather than the NYTimes. It seems that there is a glut of $100 million homes. Via the NYTimes: A Worrisome Pileup of $100 Million Homes By ROBERT FRANKMAY 28, 2016 Photo An apartment at the Pierre Hotel in Manhattan is on the market for ...

Bullard Speaks in Asia

Sunday, May 29th, 2016

Saint Louis Fed President Bullard has spoken in South Korea and he opines that markets are well prepared for a rate hike this summer. He thinks it will go off "smoothly". He may rue that comment someday. Via Reuters: St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said on Monday global markets appear ...

Fear Premium in Oil

Sunday, May 29th, 2016

Via WSJ: By Nicole Friedman May 28, 2016 5:33 a.m. ET 56 COMMENTS Oil-supply outages are at their highest level in more than a decade, bolstering the “fear premium” that has helped push crude prices to $50 a barrel. About 3.5 million barrels a day worth of production is off line because of disruptions such ...

FX

Sunday, May 29th, 2016

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman: Drivers for the Week Ahead The shift in expectations for a resumption of the Fed's gradual normalization of monetary policy is a potent force that has fueled the greenback's recovery Given that the dollar has rallied four weeks and the risk-reward favors waiting until ...

Thoughts on the Upcoming Week

Saturday, May 28th, 2016

Via Stephen Stanley at Amherst Pierpont Securities: This week is the homestretch, as a flurry of important data releases will provide Janet Yellen with the last inputs into her economic outlook speech for June 6 as well as helping to determine the FOMC’s decision on June 15.  Yellen made clear last ...

GDP Now: 2.9 Percent

Thursday, May 26th, 2016

Via the Atlanta Fed: Latest forecast: 2.9 percent — May 26, 2016 The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2016 is 2.9 percent on May 26, up from 2.5 percent on May 17. The forecast for second-quarter real gross private domestic investment ...

Data Analysis

Thursday, May 26th, 2016

Via Stephen Stanley at  Amherst Pierpont Securities: Durable goods orders surged by 3.4% in April, but the bulk of the increase came from the volatile defense and aircraft sectors.  Defense bookings had spiked from $9.6 billion to $15 billion in March so naturally I projected a pullback.  Instead, the military spending ...

FX

Thursday, May 26th, 2016

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman: Dollar Softer in Consolidation Mode The US dollar is trading with a softer bias today after the momentum stalled yesterday In addition to the dollar's consolidation, the other feature continued recovery in oil prices The details of the UK's Q1 GDP were reported Qatar ...