Archive for April, 2016

Zero Hedge Unmasked

Friday, April 29th, 2016

Bloomberg has an interesting article about some discord at the Zero Hedge blog. Apparently there are three Durdens and one has left in an acrimonious departure. I never understood the site's anonymity fetish and the founder was a bit of a megalomaniac as he compared it the anonymity of the ...

Early FX

Friday, April 29th, 2016

Via Kit Juckes at SocGen: Good morning. Link to the FX weekly is below. A long (apologies) ramble on real rates, the Fed, the dollar the Euro and the yen. The Fed really doesn't like the dollar - and the desire to see higher inflation before raising rates any further, combined ...

Don’t be Wrong, Get Long (Says Morgan Stanley)

Thursday, April 28th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: April 28, 2016 — 9:33 PM EDT Treasuries are poised to gain through the third quarter and the odds of a Federal Reserve rate increase in June are declining, according to Morgan Stanley. U.S. 10-year yields will drop to 1.45 percent by Sept. 30, according to the “base case” forecast at ...

Default Rally

Thursday, April 28th, 2016

Via the FT: 3 hours ago by: Eric Platt Companies have defaulted on obligations at the fastest pace since the US emerged from the financial crisis in 2009, as energy and mining groups continue to reel from commodity price declines. The number of defaults reached 53 so far this year, the greatest start to ...

Why Q1 Slowdown May Persist

Thursday, April 28th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: Slowdown proving sticky as growth falls to weakest since 2014 Fed needs big rebound to justify June move, Riccadonn This time, you can’t blame it on the weather. For the third year in a row, the U.S. economy started the year with a dose of the blues as gross domestic ...

Profit Recession

Thursday, April 28th, 2016

Via the WSJ: By THEO FRANCIS and KATE LINEBAUGH April 28, 2016 3:37 p.m. ET 10 COMMENTS U.S. corporate profits are set to decline for the third straight quarter, the longest and broadest slide in earnings since the financial crisis, weighed down by the energy slump and slowing growth around the world. Weakness was felt ...

Kocherlakota on the Obama Economy

Thursday, April 28th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: Obama's Economic Disappointment APRIL 28, 2016 3:21 PM EST By Narayana Kocherlakota President Barack Obama thinks Americans don’t properly appreciate the benefits of his economic policies -- a view he most recently expressed in an interview with the New York Times. Isolating the effects of any president’s policies is close to impossible. That ...

Overnight Data Preview

Thursday, April 28th, 2016

Via Robert Sinche at Amherst Pierpont Securities: AUSTRALIA: The lower CPI reported for 1Q2016 opens the potential for additional RBA easing, but the BBerg consensus expects that Private Sector Credit growth to have held at 6.6% YOY in March, a rate of credit growth in excess of nominal GDP growth, a ...

Second Opinion on GDP

Thursday, April 28th, 2016

Via Chris Low at FTN Financial: GDP rose 0.5% in the first quarter, less than the 0.7% consensus and the slowest in 2 years, after growing 1.4% in Q4. Consumption slowed to less than 2% for the first time since last year’s first quarter. Business spending fell outright, exports fell and ...

Slow Growth in Q1

Thursday, April 28th, 2016

Via Millan Mulraine at TDSecurities: TD SECURITIES DATAFLASH                    US:  The Economic Recovery Slows to a Crawl ·         US economic recovery slowed for the third consecutive quarter, with the pace of GDP growth declining to 0.5% q/q from 1.4% q/q in Q4. ·         The drop in growth momentum was mostly on account of weaker domestic ...