Archive for April, 2016

Stagnant Wages

Saturday, April 30th, 2016

Via WSJ: By Eric Morath Updated April 29, 2016 5:04 p.m. ET Years of solid job gains are failing to produce a breakout in wages, suppressing the spark needed for a sustained pickup in economic growth. U.S. employers for the past four years created more than 200,000 jobs a month on average. That ...

Weekend Data Preview

Friday, April 29th, 2016

Via Robert Sinche at Amherst Pierpont Securities: CHINA: The Bberg consensus expects the official Manufacturing PMI will have inched up to 50.3 in April from 50.2 in March, a modest sign that growth is stabilizing, while there is no consensus estimate for the Non-Manufacturing PMI, which rebounded to 53.8 in March. AUSTRALIA: ...

GDP Now Q2 Forecast

Friday, April 29th, 2016

Via the Atlanta Fed: Latest forecast: 1.8 percent — April 29, 2016 The first GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2016 is 1.8 percent on April 29. The final model nowcast for first-quarter real GDP growth was 0.6 percent, 0.1 percentage points ...

More Weak Data

Friday, April 29th, 2016

Via Millan Mulraine at TFDecurities: TD SECURITIES DATAFLASH                    US: Chicago PMI and Michigan Confidence Disappoint ·         The Chicago PMI fell well short of expectations, with the headline index falling to 50.4 from 53.6. This was a far weaker than expected performance, and the drop in the key forward-looking indicators suggests further downside ahead. ·         ...

Weak Data

Friday, April 29th, 2016

Via Millan Mulraine at TDSecurities: US: Inflation Momentum Weakening, Consumption Stalls ·         The ECI rose at an on-consensus 0.6% q/q rate, with the annual pace of employment cost inflation decelerating to 1.9% y/y from 2.0% y/y.. ·         The core PCE inflation rate was also on the weak side, rising at a meager 0.1% m/m ...

More FX

Friday, April 29th, 2016

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman: Dollar Losses Extended Ahead of the Weekend Two main drivers, weak US dollar and strong yen, rippling through the capital markets Market is not convinced that the Fed will hike this year Japanese markets are closed, but the dollar was sold (briefly) through JPY107 ...

Eurozone Prices Fall

Friday, April 29th, 2016

Via Reuters: The euro zone economy accelerated more than expected in the first quarter, preliminary data showed on Friday, but consumer prices also dropped by more than forecast in April because of a steep fall in energy costs. The European Union's statistics office Eurostat said gross domestic product in the 19 countries ...

Eurozone GDP Chugs Along

Friday, April 29th, 2016

Via the FT: an hour ago by: Mehreen Khan The eurozone has exceeded economists’ expectations, growing 0.6 per cent at the start of the year – its fastest quarterly pace since the same quarter in 2015. The figures beat forecasts of 0.4 per cent and means the 19-country bloc has doubled its growth rate ...

Goldman Sachs vs Morgan Stanley on Rates

Friday, April 29th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: 28, 2016 — 9:33 PM EDT Updated on April 29, 2016 — 5:44 AM EDT Goldman Sachs Group Inc. called Treasuries overpriced and said the Federal Reserve is poised to raise interest rates, clashing with Morgan Stanley’s forecast for a rally. Ten-year Treasuries “look expensive,” based on Goldman’s assessment of a fair ...

Helicopter Remains on Tarmac

Friday, April 29th, 2016

Via the FT: “Helicopter” is a word that dare not speak its name in the corridors of the European Central Bank. Peter Praet, the ECB’s chief economist, is the latest senior figure to douse talk of central bank helicopter drops, claiming the notion is not even discussed “informally” by policymakers. In an interview ...