Archive for February, 2016

Weak China Data

Monday, February 29th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: February 29, 2016 — 8:01 PM EST Updated on February 29, 2016 — 8:20 PM EST Factory gauge hasn't been at a weaker level for seven years Services index slips to lowest point since December 2008   China’s official factory gauge extended its stretch of deteriorating conditions to a record seven months while a ...

Petroleum Producer Pemex’s Problem

Monday, February 29th, 2016

"Pemex is facing short term financial difficulties" says the CEO of Pemex as he reports that the firm lost more than $30 billion in 2015. The Titanic faced a short term problem too when crew spotted an iceberg dead ahead. Via the FT: 6 hours ago by: Jude Webber in Mexico City Pemex, Mexico’s ...

Exxon Mobil Launch and Price Details

Monday, February 29th, 2016

I have had my grandfather hat on most of day so have not followed this closely but there appears to be huge demand for this Exxon Mobil multi trancher. If you scroll down to the 30 year you will see it launched at T + 150. Guidance was 155 area ...

Overnight Data Preview

Monday, February 29th, 2016

Via Robert Sinche at Amherst Pierpont Securities: AUSTRALIA: As it has since last May, the RBA is expected to hold its Cash rate at 2.0%, according to the Bberg consensus. The AiG Performance of Manufacturing (PMI-type) Index was 51.5 in January, 7th consecutive month above 50, in contrast to most developed ...

China Inflection Point

Monday, February 29th, 2016

Via the WSJ: By Alex Frangos Updated Feb. 29, 2016 5:40 a.m. ET 1 COMMENTS China still has room to cut, but it may not be having much effect other than hiding the economy’s pain. The People’s Bank of China waited until the Group of 20 financial bigwigs were safely out of Shanghai to resume ...

FX

Monday, February 29th, 2016

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman: Baker's Dozen - 13 Items that Should be on Your Radar Screen - The year has begun on a tumultuous note, but three sources of stress have eased - We identify 13 things that investors will be watching in the week ahead Price action:  The ...

Overnight Treasury Market Musings

Monday, February 29th, 2016

The 10 year Treasury continues to cheapen versus Bunds. I clocked the spread at 163 basis points this morning. I had marked that spread as narrow as 140 basis points on Feb 11 when the 10 year US traded at 1.58. Breakeven inflation rates also continue to march wider. The recent ...

EuroZone Inflation Sinks

Monday, February 29th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: Inflation rate at minus 0.2% in February vs 0% forecast ECB to review stimulus program at March 9-10 meeting The inflation picture in the euro area deteriorated in February, giving European Central Bank policy makers more bad news to digest just a week before their next meeting. Consumer prices in the 19-nation bloc ...

China Cuts Reserve Requirements

Monday, February 29th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: China Cuts Reserve Ratio in Latest Step to Support Growth 2016-02-29 10:05:08.123 GMT By Tan Hwee Ann (Bloomberg) -- China’s central bank cut the amount of cash the nation’s lenders must hold as reserves, stepping up efforts to cushion an economic slowdown amid plunging stock prices and a weakening currency. The required reserve ratio for the ...

Crowded Trade

Sunday, February 28th, 2016

This Bloomberg story reports that hedge funds hold their largest positions long the 10 year note contract since April 2013. That is somewhat ominous and worrisome (if you are one of the aforementioned longs) as it was in May 2013 that the first cracks appeared and the taper tantrum began ...