Archive for December, 2015

Early FX

Thursday, December 17th, 2015

Via Kit Juckes at SocGen: )<http://www.sgmarkets.com/r/?id=hf6107ff,1535d1fb,1535d1fc&p1=136122&p2=3a1611215ef95e500289a28069a10913> The overnight reaction to the Fed rate hike has seen equity markets rally, oil prices remain very soft, commodity currencies fall back, and the dollar rally across the board. It is up against all the other G10 currencies. I wanted a dollar dip to buy and ...

Next Rate Hike

Thursday, December 17th, 2015

A fully paid up subscriber forwarded this and cited a  Reuters article which reports that a poll of primary dealers anticipates the next rate hike in March. Via a fully paid up subscriber: POST FOMC 13 of 21 primary dealers per Reuters Poll say Fed will next raise rates in Q1, rest ...

Weaker Renminbi Again

Wednesday, December 16th, 2015

Via FT: PBoC weakens RMB fix for 9th day in a row by: Patrick McGee The People’s Bank of China has set the fix for the renminbi weaker yet again, for a ninth straight session, following the Federal Reserve’s historic decision to lift interest rates from crisis-era lows. The PBoC set the fix, or ...

FX Post FOMC

Wednesday, December 16th, 2015

Via Kit Juckes <http://www.sgmarkets.com/r/?id=hf5fede8,15343d8c,15343d8d&p1=136122&p2=c128203ba03651f5572f7ef1c2c8583a> A Dovish hike, aimed at causing minimum market stress The FOMC has finally raised the Fed Funds rate, as universally expected, by 25bp. The text of the FOMC Statement is at least as dovish as most market participants had expected, suggesting that with “gradual adjustments in the stance of ...

Uncapped Repo

Wednesday, December 16th, 2015

Via Bloomberg: December 16, 2015 — 2:09 PM EST The Federal Reserve removed the daily limit on aggregate borrowings through its overnight reverse repurchase facility, previously set at $300 billion, in a step designed to make sure the benchmark interest rate stays inside its new target range. The size of the facility will ...

FX

Wednesday, December 16th, 2015

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman: Fe Fi Fo Fed - The much awaited Fed meeting is here - We have argued the dot-plots have a high noise to signal ratio because non-voters are included - The eurozone flash December PMI was mixed; the final read of November CPI ticked up ...

Dead Cat Bounce Over

Wednesday, December 16th, 2015

The FT reports that oil's attempt to mimic a moribund feline striking the pavement has failed as oil resumes its slide. Via the FT: Dead cat bounce in oil prices appears to be over by: Nathalie Thomas That didn’t last long. The dead cat bounce that lifted oil prices from Monday’s lows looks to be ...

Tax and Spending Bill Agreement

Wednesday, December 16th, 2015

Government shutdown averted. Via the WSJ: By Kristina Peterson and Richard Rubin Updated Dec. 16, 2015 2:49 a.m. ET WASHINGTON—Congressional leaders early Wednesday unveiled a sweeping deal on spending and tax legislation that would avoid a government shutdown and make major changes to energy policy and the 2010 health law. The $1.15 trillion spending bill ...

Early FX

Wednesday, December 16th, 2015

Via Kit Juckes at SocGen: <http://www.sgmarkets.com/r/?id=hf5ef916,15326f43,15326f44&p1=136122&p2=02db90d08f926ebb0519d1b09409bafe> At this point, my brain's scrambled. Yesterday was all about positions being taken off, but did I know that would mean option expiries taking EUR/USD sharply lower in the afternoon? No I did not... We've waited so long for this policy move that the initial reaction ...

Beware of Adjusted Earnings

Tuesday, December 15th, 2015

Via the WSJ: By THEO FRANCIS And KATE LINEBAUGH Dec. 14, 2015 8:28 p.m. ET 20 COMMENTS A financial obfuscation of the dot-com era is making a comeback: Hundreds of U.S. companies are trumpeting adjusted net income, adjusted sales and “adjusted Ebitda.” These adjusted measures paint a rosier picture of corporate earnings. Without them, third-quarter ...