Archive for November, 2015

Business Investment Fizzles Out

Monday, November 30th, 2015

Great article on the parlous state of capital spending: By Eric Morath Nov. 30, 2015 7:51 p.m. ET 6 COMMENTS Business investment across the U.S. is fizzling out. Companies appear reluctant to step up spending on the basic building blocks of the economy, such as machines, computers and new buildings. The broadest measure of U.S. ...

Back to the Future?

Monday, November 30th, 2015

This Barron's story  on equity market technicals posits that it looks alot like 2007. Excellent read. Via Barron's and click here for the charts which are indispensable in this article: Stock Charts Remarkably Similar to Those in 2007 Although this year’s fundamentals are nothing like 2007, technicals suggest investors have much to worry ...

Unfolding Credit Cycle

Monday, November 30th, 2015

Via the FT: Dear future historians: Janet Yellen did not cause the late-2010s recession. If a Federal Reserve interest rate rise in December is followed in short order by an economic slowdown, the temptation will be to blame the central bank and its chair for a premature tightening of monetary policy. But ...

Metrics the FOMC Watches

Monday, November 30th, 2015

This article was out much earlier today on Bloomberg and discusses inflation expectations, resource slack and commodity prices. The article suggests that since inflation expectations are reined in and commodity prices are in the crapper (my paraphrase) and only the labor market is showing signs of life,then any rate hikes ...

Longest overnight preview ever

Monday, November 30th, 2015

Via Robert Sinche at Amherst Pierpont Securities: All 27 analysts in the Bloomberg consensus expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to hold its policy rate at 2.0% while all 42 analysts surveyed expect the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to hold its Repo Rate at 6.75%. AUSTRALIA: The November AiG Manufacturing ...

Chicago Purchasers

Monday, November 30th, 2015

Via Millan Mulraine at TDSecurities: TD SECURITIES DATAFLASH                    US:  Chicago PMI Falls Back Below Zero ·         The Chicago PMI drifted back into contractionary territory in November, falling to 48.7 from 56.2. ·         This was a far weaker performance than the market consensus for a more modest decline to 54.0, marking the 6th month this ...

Lack of Supply

Monday, November 30th, 2015

Via Bloomberg and thank you to Steve Liddy for forwarding: There’s a Big Drop in U.S. Treasury Debt Supply Coming in 2016 2015-11-30 11:24:45.925 GMT By Liz Capo McCormick and Daniel Kruger (Bloomberg) -- Lost in the debate over the U.S. Treasury market’s resilience as the Federal Reserve starts to raise interest rates is one simple ...

What to Watch for Today

Monday, November 30th, 2015

Via Bloomberg; WHAT TO WATCH: * (All times New York) * Economic Data * 9:00am: ISM Milwaukee, Nov. (prior 46.66) * 9:45am: Chicago Purchasing Manager, Nov., est. 54 (prior 56.2) * 10:00am: Pending Home Sales m/m, Oct., est. 1.5% (prior -2.3%) * Pending Home Sales NSA y/y, Oct. (prior 2.5%) * 10:30am: Dallas Fed Mfg Activity, Nov., est. -12 (prior -12.7) * ...

More FX

Monday, November 30th, 2015

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman:  Seven Events Next Week that will Shape the Investment Climate - The week ahead is among the most important of the year - The divergence in the trajectories of monetary policy has not peaked, or even come close to a peak - While all Fed tightening events ...

Negative Yields

Monday, November 30th, 2015

Via the FT: Swiss 10-year yield hits new low of -0.41% 31 minutes ago How low can you go? No, really. This is getting bizarre. Switzerland's 10-year yield has hit a new record low of minus 0.41 per cent, as anticipation further easing at the ECB's Thursday meeting drags European bond yields ...