Archive for April, 2015

More on the Tightening Labor Market

Thursday, April 30th, 2015

Via the FT: US labour market starts to tighten   Wage growth, one of the key missing pieces of the US recovery puzzle, picked up sharply earlier this year in a sign of a tightening labour market. Private sector pay rose 2.8 per cent in the first quarter — compared with 2.2 per cent ...

Labor Ascendant

Thursday, April 30th, 2015

Greg Ip at the WSJ makes the case that for the first time in many years the relative positions of capital and labor are shifting and that in the short run at least will favor workers. Via Greg Ip at the WSJ: By Greg Ip April 30, 2015 7:32 p.m. ET 1 COMMENTS For decades, ...

Mutual Fund Flows

Thursday, April 30th, 2015

Via Merrill Lynch Research: Outflows from short term high grade funds rose further last week... ...to $1.42bn, the second biggest weekly outflow on record. high yield fund outflows accelerated to $0.88bn last week, up from -$0.35bn. Out of HY and short duration. High grade bond fund flows jumped sharply during the week ended April ...

Spending Data

Thursday, April 30th, 2015

Via Mullan Mulraine at TDSecurities: The US data tone was somewhat mixed, with the rebound in personal consumption providing some evidence that consumer spending ended the quarter on stronger footing after the weather-related swoon lower during the first two months of the year. The inflation picture, however, with subdued performance in ...

FX

Thursday, April 30th, 2015

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman: Bond Rout Continues, Euro Marches Higher The euro pullback spurred by the Federal Reserve statement that continued to regard the slowdown as having to been partly caused by transitory factors, was seized upon in Europe as a new buying opportunity.  Support is seen near ...

What to Watch Today

Thursday, April 30th, 2015

Via Bloomberg: WHAT TO WATCH: * (All times New York) * Economic Data * 8:30am: Employment Cost Index, 1Q, est. 0.6% (prior 0.6%, revised 0.5%) * 8:30am: Personal Income, March, est. 0.2% (prior 0.4%) * Personal Spending, March, est. 0.5% (prior 0.1%) * Inflation-Adjusted Personal Spending, March, est. 0.4% (prior -0.1%) * PCE Deflator m/m, March, est. 0.2% (prior 0.2%) * ...

Overnight

Thursday, April 30th, 2015

This is an excerpt from an overngight note by TDSecurities: EURUSD continues to nudge higher and is now above 1.1150 on an extension of the EUR bull move from the past few days. While we have seen no specific trigger from hard data this morning, we think these moves continue to ...

Data Watching

Thursday, April 30th, 2015

Via Kit Juckes at SocGen <http://www.sgresearch.com/r/?id=hd9d5e1f,1272dd3d,1272dd3e&p1=136122&p2=e6dace4dfb451775d8531bac625681d2> UK and US GDP growth disappointed in Q1, but didn't change the nature of the policy debate. Paul Krugman (in the Guardian) and Martin Wolf (in the FT) both argue for more fiscal stimulus on the grounds that you'd be mad not to take advantage of ...

FOMC tests New System

Wednesday, April 29th, 2015

Market participants have taken the position that the FOMC can only implement major policy changes in the months when Ms Yellen engages in genial colloquy with the press. The WSJ's Pedro Da Costa reports that the Fed tested a teleconference system which would permit Ms Yellen to hold an impromptu ...

Merrill Lynch on Credit Spreads and Other Stuff

Wednesday, April 29th, 2015

Via Merrill Lynch Research: Tail wagging the dog. Our core view is that over the next year or two we will see higher interest rates and wider credit spreads, as the Fed unwinds its massive monetary policy easing cycle. That positive correlation has been on display the past two days as ...