Archive for October, 2014
Friday, October 31st, 2014
Via a fully paid up subscriber:
The BoJ decided to sail further into QE waters earlier today and at the moment there are bunch of things we know about this move and a bunch of questions unanswered (known knows and known unknowns I guess?). Here 3 quick points that come to ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Conspiratorial Musings
Friday, October 31st, 2014
Via Bloomberg:
WHAT TO WATCH:
* (All times New York)
Economic Data
* 8:30am: Employment Cost Index, 3Q, est. 0.5% (prior 0.7%)
* 8:30am: Personal Income, Sept., est. 0.3% (prior 0.3%)
* Personal Spending, Sept., est. 0.1% (prior 0.5%)
* PCE Deflator m/m, Sept., est. 0.1% (prior 0.0%)
* PCE Deflator y/y, Sept., est. 1.5% (prior 1.5%)
* PCE ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on What to Watch Today
Friday, October 31st, 2014
Via Bloomberg:
IG CREDIT: Dealer Positions Fall; HY at Record Low
2014-10-31 10:39:34.835 GMT
By Robert Elson
Oct. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Dealer positions in corporate bonds
fell $4.7b to $28.6b as of Oct 22. $45.9b, seen March 5, was the
high for the series Fed began April 2013; $23b low was Aug 2013.
* Investment grade positions:
* ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Dealer Positions in Corporate Bonds
Friday, October 31st, 2014
Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman:
Yen Weakens As BOJ Surprises
- The BOJ delivered a dovish surprise at today’s meeting; Japan reported September national CPI and Tokyo October CPI overnight
- Eurozone data today was mostly softer than expected
- The Russian central bank hiked 150 bp to 9.5% vs. consensus for ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on FX
Friday, October 31st, 2014
I overslept which is a rare event.
As you know and I just found out the BOJ surprised the world with a huge stimulus move which has caused stocks to rocket.
Central banks bought 10s. Central banks bought 2s through 5s.
Real money sold very short coupons.
Bank portfolios bought 5 year through 10 ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Flows
Thursday, October 30th, 2014
The WSJ reports that Walmart is considering a program in which its brick and mortar stores will match the prices of online sellers such as Amazon. The story notes that the firm has resisted such an approach previously but with the Christmas selling season nigh and competition intense Walmart might ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Lack of Inflation Story
Thursday, October 30th, 2014
Via Merrill Lynch Research:
Flows catching up to returns. Mutual fund an ETF flows to risky assets, such as stocks, high yield bonds and levered loans turned more positive last week as the market rally continued. Flows in the prior week were rather mixed, however (see here), still weighed down by ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Eclectic Topics Via Merrill Lynch
Thursday, October 30th, 2014
MBS opened up on the weak side but has spent the day grinding tighter. They are currently 1 tick to 2 ticks tighter on the day and about 3+ ticks off the wide.
One trader notes that one or two big buyers combined with a risk averse dealer community can spark ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on MBS Spreads
Thursday, October 30th, 2014
Larry Sabato is a Professor at the University of Virginia (Charlottesville is a beautiful town nestled in the Blue Ridge Mountains in central Virginia. If you visit go when the Charlottesville Ballet is performing as my daughter is the founder.) and he publishes Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball which opines on ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Electoral Politics and a Plug for a Ballet Company
Thursday, October 30th, 2014
The ferocious flattening has subsided and the curve has re steepened and the 5 year note has undergone some yield curve rehab. I had marked 5s 10s as narrow as 70.4 at one point this AM. That spread is now 72. The 5s 30s spread was as narrow as 143 ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Curvology